Conditions are right for another year of heavy spring flooding in US interior states (Scientific American). What happened last year could be repeated because so much soil is too wet for proper absorption of new rainfall. Warmer air temperatures that are now becoming commonplace favor a high rate of precipitation. (This report did not address current developments in the Southeastern states, where soils are also filling up with water over wide areas.)
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High water levels are wreaking havoc around the Great Lakes (Peter Sinclair). “The five inland seas are bursting at the seams during the region’s wettest period in more than a century, which scientists say is likely connected to the warming climate…..Homes and businesses are flooding, roads and sidewalks are crumbling and beaches are washing away…..It’s never been like this, never…..The destruction is just incredible.” (I believe all of that water was transported through the atmosphere in the form of vapor from the tropical oceans, which have been warming and evaporating at a higher rate than before. The upper level winds that carry this vapor have cooperated by changing their configuration pattern between south and north.)
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A possible change of circular wind patterns over the Arctic Ocean could have rapid major consequences for the AMOC and its effect on global climate conditions (NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory). “Using 12 years of satellite data, scientists have measured how this circular current, called the Beaufort Gyre, has precariously balanced an influx of unprecedented amounts of cold, fresh water — a change that could alter the currents in the Atlantic Ocean and cool the climate of Western Europe…..Scientists have been keeping an eye on the Beaufort Gyre in case the wind changes direction again. If the direction were to change, the wind would reverse the current, pulling it counterclockwise and releasing the water it has accumulated all at once…..If the Beaufort Gyre were to release the excess fresh water into the Atlantic Ocean, it could potentially slow down its circulation. And that would have hemisphere-wide implications for the climate, especially in Western Europe.” The full story has an unusually long and complicated series of events, but worth the time spent in trying to understand. It has not gotten much attention.
—Carbon Brief has published a guest post today which explains many things about the nature of the AMOC, its crucial role in climate regulation, and the possibility of a shutdown. The author does not specifically refer to NASA’s Beaufort Gyre report but is very open to the idea of a tipping point created by a sudden fresh water injection.
–Carbon Brief has also recently published a very lengthy explainer covering all nine of Earth’s major climate tipping points in a detailed way, and generally up to date, with AMOC collapse included. It is well done and worth keeping on file for future reference as we hear about each of them more and more often.
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The locust plague infesting countries in the Horn of Africa is growing exponentially (UN News Service). “The infestation in Kenya is the worst in 70 years, while Somalia and Ethiopia are experiencing their worst outbreaks in 25 years, putting crop production, food security and millions of lives at risk…..Somalia and Sudan faced a famine threat in 2017, but communities have also weathered poor rains, drought, and floods in the past two years. It is these weather events which are creating the environment to facilitate the current locust outbreak…..Unusually heavy rains and increase in the frequency in cyclones in the Indian Ocean have created favourable conditions for the locusts to breed.” All that weather information, as reported, suggests that climate change may be involved as a factor in the current outbreak, creating the possibility that future outbreaks may occur more frequently, a thought that should be given close study.
https://reliefweb.int/report/kenya/act-now-prevent-desert-locust-catastrophe-horn-africa-un-agencies
Carl