Important new information supports estimates of major, rapid sea level rise from ice sheet melting in West Antarctica in the early part of the last interglacial period (University of New South Wales). “The extreme ice loss caused a multi-metre rise in global mean sea levels — and it took less than 2°C of ocean warming for it to occur. Not only did we lose a lot of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but this happened very early during the Last Interglacial…..Our study highlights that the Antarctic Ice Sheet may lie close to a tipping point, which once passed may commit us to rapid sea level rise for millennia to come.” The study was conducted by a large group of prominent scientists and published in a leading journal. Their method of investigation seems unusual, but to me everything about this work and the results looks credible.
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–Link to the full text, which has open access.
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A new study provides an explanation of natural limits to the ability of a rising CO2 level to enhance additional vegetation growth (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory). “CO2 emissions from human activities play a double effect. On one hand, CO2 causes global warming and on the other, CO2 can stimulate photosynthesis. The increase in photosynthesis can increase plant growth, creating a feedback that can help absorb some of the CO2 in the atmosphere and slow global warming.” Plants also need nutrients, sufficient quantities of which may often be lacking in the soil. Phosphorus and nitrogen are dominant in that respect, and the limitations of each have been partially mapped out globally. The procedure will help to “make more accurate predictions of global warming.” (Again, very credible, and certainly useful as well.)
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Preview of a new study about the prospect of radical change in the Amazon rainforest (BBC News). “Results from a decade-long study of greenhouse gases over the Amazon basin appear to show around 20% of the total area has become a net source of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere…..most of the rainforest still retains its ability to absorb large quantities of carbon dioxide…..one portion of the forest, which is especially heavily deforested, appears to have lost that capacity…..Each year is worse…..it could be showing the beginnings of a major tipping point…..In our calculations, if we exceed that 20-25% of deforestation, and global warming continues unabated with high emission scenarios, then the tipping point would be reached…..the new findings suggest that in the next 30 years, more than half of the Amazon could transform from rainforest into savanna.”
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A special report from Carbon Brief about the permafrost “tipping point” makes an important clarification. What is highly unlikely is that emissions will ever be great enough to cause a runaway greenhouse effect all by themselves, or in the event that all emissions under human control were ended. In that event they would continue to add gases and warming for an extended period, but these would soon begin to slow down and then stop before everything had locked into a trend of unstoppable thawing. Past speculation that focused on massive releases from methane hydrates that are extensively buried under permafrost is no longer considered plausible.
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A separate but related report from Eos contains the result of an interview with two lead authors who published a study about methane hydrates in 2019, without open access. This article includes a great deal of valuable information about the nature, formation and location of hydrate deposits as presently understood. The authors think of them as potentially valuable, “raising the exciting prospect of simultaneous energy production and carbon storage for a nearly carbon-neutral system.”
Carl