The future impacts of climate change in Europe, according to the European Environmental Agency (The Guardian). The agency has mapped out the details of what will happen if global average temperatures rise to either 1.5C or 2.0C above pre-idustrial and no further, with the focus limited to the flooding, drought, forest fires, sea level rise and storm surges that will affect individual cities and regions of Europe. Of further interest, and this applies to everyone on the planet, everywhere, “The EEA has concluded it is possible to limit the rise in global temperatures to 2C above pre-industrial levels, as long as greenhouse gas concentrations peak during the next 15 to 29 years. Meeting a more demanding 1.5 limit requires concentrations to peak in the next three to 13 years. Under both scenarios, there is a 50% chance of overshooting the temperature.” Note the use of the word ‘concentrations’ as opposed to ’emissions.’ In order for concentrations to peak at some particular level the familiar Keeling curve that is now accelerating upward would have to roll over and stop dead in its tracks, which would require total CO2 emissions from all sources to drop all the way to net-zero, and for all other sources of warming or cooling to also zero out. (These figures look less liberal than those of the IPCC.) Perhaps with that in mind, “The agency wants governments to focus on adapting to unavoidable global heating.” https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/10/fires-floods-maps-europe-climate-catastrophe
–The impact maps and other information from the agency are all available at this link: https://experience.arcgis.com/stemapp/5f6596de6c4445a58aec956532b9813d
–And here, once again, is the Keeling curve that is supposed to completely stop rising in less than three decades: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/graph.html
In Australia, the fires are out but now Sydney and many more places are being drenched by record rainfall (BBC News). “Australia’s weather agency said 391.6mm (over 15 inches) of rain had fallen in the past four days in Sydney, more than three times the average rainfall for February. About 100,000 homes are without power, and officials have warned flash floods could be life-threatening.” (Some towns have reported as much as 27 inches.)
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Four authors of a new study explain the functioning and benefits of the “land carbon sink” (The Conversation). The sink is simply defined as the difference between uptake and release of carbon dioxide by all of the vegetation and soils around the planet. It has been increasing at almost exactly the same rate as total gain in CO2 emissions caused by humans since the nineteenth century, absorbing a regular amount each year averaging about 29% of those emissions. It can continue to do so if we properly protect the forests that do most of the absorbing. This is a fine explanation, including some numbers that tighten up previous estimates of both kinds of sources and both the land and ocean sinks.
–The full study has open access:
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Majority of US adults believe climate change is most important issue today (American Psychological Association). According to a new poll, “As the effects of climate change become more evident, more than half of U.S. adults (56%) say climate change is the most important issue facing society today, yet 4 in 10 have not made any changes in their behavior to reduce their contribution to climate change….. And as the election race heats up, 62% say they are willing to vote for a candidate because of his or her position on climate change.” That’s something new, and certainly interesting, but will it hold up in November?
Carl