Climate Letter #1449

Posted on June 18, 2019 by Carl Campbell
The Sundarbans—a primary source of future climate refugees (The Atlantic).  This low-lying coastal region, mostly a part of Bangladesh, is the home of 13 million people who are seeing their houses and livelihoods destroyed by rising seas and storms.  This heartbreaking story is well told.

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India’s main source of food supply is vulnerable to extreme weather conditions (Financial Express).  Rice plantings account for three-quarters of the nation’s grain supply, in spite of the crop’s relatively poor ability to withstand harsh weather.  Alternative grains that are more adaptable are available, but for now the picture is one of high risk of food falling short for a growing population.
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A recent  study found that deforestation in the tropics is a direct cause of higher temperatures in the local region (Mongabay).  The study found that forestation had the opposite effect in those same regions, giving considerable credibility to the theories behind causation.  Cambodia was not a subject of the study, but would provide an ideal test site because of its extraordinarily high rate of deforestation accompanied by extreme temperature increases now being felt across Southeast Asia.  From the study, “higher deforestation rates were found to create even more intense warming, with 50 percent rates of forest cover loss in tropical areas leading to warming of 0.83 to 1.33 degrees Celsius.”  That is a frightening amount, worthy of deep concern.
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The CO2 budget used in setting the goals of the Paris Agreement were tied to an assumption that the concentration of methane gas would be in decline (Phys.org).  Instead of falling, methane levels have accelerated upward, and scientists are unsure of the reasons.  A new study goes over the various possibilities, and as the lead author puts it, “the most alarming possibilities are the ones we have little control over. Rising temperatures could be triggering wetlands to release more methane, and changes in atmospheric chemistry could be slowing the rate at which methane breaks down.”
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New estimates for global population growth (NBC News).  From the current count of 7.7 billion people, the numbers could rise to 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.9 by 2100, which is down a bit from the 11.2 billion estimate made two years ago.  As widely understood, “the more people we have and the more resources we use, the harder it will be to cope with the risks and impacts of climate change.”
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Wildfires in Siberia have an amazing impact on the terrain as permafrost melts (The Siberian Times).  Be sure to scroll down to see pictures showing ‘The Mouth of Hell,’ which has been growing every year because of melting even while out of the reach of any flames.
Carl

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