Climate Letter #1448

Posted on June 17, 2019 by Carl Campbell
New models predict more extremes of both drought and flooding in Africa because of climate change (The Guardian).  This would disrupt food production in the face of fast-growing populations.  “Our research suggests that extreme bouts of rainfall are likely to be seven or eight times more frequent than they are today…..At the other end of the precipitation spectrum, the study revealed there would be an increase in occasions when severe drought would occur for up to 10 days in the midst of the most critical part of a region’s growing season…..western and central areas will suffer the worst impacts of weather disruptions.”

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Right now, a record number of people are facing a critical lack of food in South Sudan (Reliefweb).  From UN agencies, “an estimated 6.96 million South Sudanese will face acute levels of food insecurity or worse by the end of July…..61 percent of the population.”  Record low stocks from the poor 2018 harvest have been followed by the delayed onset of 2019 seasonal rains.
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Another unusually big melt season is predicted for Greenland this year, and is already underway (CNN).  Jason Box pointed out that this year had unusual early-season melt days in April, and that the melt season was “happening about three weeks earlier than average, and earlier than the record-setting melt year of 2012.”  The post contains an image that vividly shows an astonishing jump in the extent of this early melting.
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Electric power generation across the globe is “depressingly” unchanged from 20 years ago (The Guardian).  “Three flat lines show an unwavering breakdown of the global electricity mix: last year coal made up 38%, non-fossil fuels reached 36% and the rest of the world’s power was generated by gas and oil. This is the same as in 1998.”  One thing this tells us is that all of the growth to date of renewable solar and wind energy has done little more than to replace the decline of nuclear energy as a source of power.  Total demand for energy is largely driven by developing countries in Asia, “where the appetite for electricity is growing rapidly, and renewable energy is not increasing anything like fast enough to keep coal at bay.”  (Last year the US also had unusually high demand for power, said to be weather-related.)
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Coal mining still has the full support of a major branch of Australian government (Rolling Stone).  Jeff Goodell has a biting commentary on the Adani mining project in Queensland, now  fully permitted.  “The Carmichael mine is still a long way from a done deal…..But the fact that the project even got this far is a sign of the greed and stupidity that makes the climate crisis so hard to tackle.”  The future of the Great Barrier Reef is among the things at stake.
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Polls are showing that US voters from both parties would support the “Carbon Dividends Solution” to climate change.  The GOP pollster Frank Luntz came up with this information, along with other interesting bits, as reported by Peter Sinclair.  This is basically the same idea that James Hansen has been promoting for many years, with high confidence that it would quickly accomplish real emission cuts if pursued aggressively.
Carl

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