Climate Letter #1447

Alaska has had its warmest spring on record, causing multiple unwanted changes (The Guardian).  One of the highlights is evidence of a speedup in permafrost thawing, close to where people live and travel.

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Permafrost is also thawing more rapidly in many remote parts of the Arctic.  Peter Sinclair draws attention to a new report published in Nature, with comments from several of its authors.  They describe their research into processes that were previously not well-known, which could add as much as an extra 50% to the total amount of greenhouse gas that is likely to be released by future thawing.  “We estimate that abrupt permafrost thawing in lowland lakes and wetlands, together with that in upland hills, could release between 60 billion and 100 billion tonnes of carbon by 2300. This is in addition to the 200 billion tonnes of carbon expected to be released in other regions that will thaw gradually.”  Moreover, because this abrupt type of thawing is heavily weighted by release of super-potent methane gas, “the impacts of thawing permafrost on Earth’s climate could be twice that expected from current models.”
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How global warming is stimulating toxic algae blooms in lakes around New York state (Syracuse.com).  The surface water of Lake Skaneateles, featured in this story, has warmed by nearly four degrees since 1972, which worsens the blooms.  Moreover, “Every lake that we’ve looked at has led us to the same conclusion: Climate change is contributing to changing lake conditions that favor cyanobacteria.”  Heavier rainfall, also associated with climate change, makes a further contribution to the blooms via increased flooding activity.
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Carbon pricing is falling short as a prospective cure for climate change (Scientific American).  The demand for energy is growing too fast for renewables to catch up and take over.  That is because all energy is cheap and the benefits are high.  Putting a high tax on fossil fuels, but not on renewables, would be an effective road to change, but it is not happening, because some of the benefits of cheap energy (along with the economic growth that rides on top of it) would be lost for many years.  The public is still too enamored with all the present benefits to make that kind of sacrifice, thus carbon policies are a tough sell.
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State and local governments still have plenty of options that would be helpful, and not so hard to sell (Yale Climate Connections).  The author provides a number of suggestions for good ways to get started.  Doing these things, even if not a complete solution, would “help prevent the most devastating impacts of climate change.”
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Synthetic kerosene made from sunlight, water and CO2 is now a proven possibility (Renew Economy).  It could provide a useful alternative for long-range shipping and aviation transport that currently depend on kerosene made from petroleum.  It would also create a sizable market for CO2 that has been captured from the air or any other source.
Carl

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