New findings about Greenland’s loss of ice mass enable predictions of a faster rate of sea level rise. Researchers have analyzed the reasons for the unexpectedly high rate of surface melting in recent years and have concluded that the trend is irreversible. “We’re going to see faster and faster sea level rise for the foreseeable future…..Once you hit that tipping point, the only question is: How severe does it get?” The implications are especially serious for cities along the US east coast.
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-greenland-ice-faster.html
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-greenland-ice-faster.html
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A newly-discovered climate change feedback may be applicable to today’s rapid warming trend. Researchers made the discovery while searching for the basis of the extreme warming of the PETM 56 million years ago. Real evidence shows that an additional source of CO2 was mobilized under the influence of the increased heat, with calculations indicating quantities of sufficient size to greatly prolong the trend. “The researchers said the findings offer a warning about modern climate change. If warming reaches certain tipping points, feedbacks can be triggered that have the potential to cause even more temperature change.” The authors of this report include some well-known scientists who have had years of experience doing PETM studies.
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-ancient-climate-triggered-thousands-years.html
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-ancient-climate-triggered-thousands-years.html
–Here is a link to the Abstract of the report. It includes numbers that describe the extraordinary increase in carbon emissions. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-018-0277-3#Abs1
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There is growing confidence in the accuracy of climate predictions. A new international study has surveyed the way they are made and how they have turned out. Progress is being compared with that which has already been established by those who make ordinary weather forecasts. This reflects the constant improvement in climate models, which are increasingly integrated with those used in weather predictions, for the benefit of each. “Climate predictions at decadal time scales are produced routinely now to international standards, allowing this nascent field to develop further and to adapt to society’s needs.”
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An extract from a new book with concerns about the reshaping of India’s monsoon season (The Atlantic). The author, Sunil Amrith, is a professor of South Asian Studies at Harvard who often writes about environmental issues and human migration. He has seen how climate models fail to work in the case of India’s monsoon, overridden by the complexity of topographical details. He writes, “We are left with the most bitter of ironies. Many of the measures taken to secure India against the vagaries of the monsoon in the second half of the 20th century—intensive irrigation, the planting of new crops—have, through a cascade of unintended consequences, destabilized the monsoon itself.” There is very much at stake in the outcome.
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Everything you might want to know about the impact of climate change on the recharging of groundwater losses (Carbon Brief). A new study shows how climate change can affect the rate of recharge, and how the effect can be delayed in different ways.
Carl