Climate Letter #1344

New research finds evidence that the cooling effect of pollution-based aerosols in certain types of clouds is twice as great as current models are estimating.  The finding is important because it “shows that the heating effect of greenhouse gases is higher than has been thought because it has been mitigated by the impact of aerosols in clouds.”  Since these aerosols are derived from the burning of fossil fuels there is an implication that any cessation would have a warming effect on the atmosphere.  No numbers were given that might quantify the effect in a global way, which would likely require a broadening of the study to cover more regions and types of clouds.

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A new study offers a special reason for why the Arctic is warming so much faster than other regions.  There have been many theories about why this is so but to date no firm conclusions.  These authors basically suggest that the greenhouse effect is magnified in this region, compared with lower latitudes, because its atmosphere has much more stability with respect to vertical air movement.  “This condition enhances the CO2-induced warming in the Arctic near the surface. Due to the unstable atmosphere in the tropics, CO2 mostly warms the upper atmosphere and energy is easily lost to space. This is opposite to what happens in the Arctic: Less outgoing infrared radiation escapes the atmosphere, which further amplifies the surface-trapped warming.”

https://phys.org/news/2019-01-reveals-local-drivers-amplified-arctic.html?

Heatwaves, specifically defined in a way that describes them as relatively rare events, have experienced a two to three-fold increase in activity in the UK since the late 19th century.  The region under study has ” the longest available instrumental records of temperature in the world…..Their results show that although heatwaves have occurred in the past, their frequency, duration, and severity have increased…..as hotter days become more frequent, heatwaves will on average become more likely and longer lasting and if we have the data, this is something we can quantify.”
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-two-three-heatwave-occurrence-severity.html?
–The current heatwave in Australia has been breaking records in a number of urban areas, one as high as 49C (120F):
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A group of scientists has proposed a blueprint for achieving climate goals without relying on costly and unproven technologies for carbon removal.  “This model is the first to achieve the required negative emissions through natural climate solutions, including the restoration of degraded forests and other lands, along with a transition to 100% renewable energy by mid-century…..As this climate model shows, in order to keep the global temperature rise to no more than 1.5°C, we have to keep our natural carbon sinks intact, scale up restoration efforts and shift to regenerative agriculture.”  The costs involved in making the transition could easily be met by nations ending subsidies to the fossil fuel industries.  This highly commendable approach is backed by a two-year study project funded by the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation.
https://phys.org/news/2019-01-state-of-the-art-climate-crisis.html
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The latest model of wind turbine produced by Siemens has blades almost 300 feet long.  Once in operation, about three years from now, it “could boost electricity generation by up to 30 per cent compared to its predecessors.”  Competition in this field is lively.
Carl

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