Climate Letter #1968

After publishing yesterday’s letter I was struck by the realization that precipitable water’s (PW”s) greenhouse energy effect is subject to radical differences in each of the two hemispheres. The unique mechanism that goes a long way toward explaining the cause of these differences was summarized and illustrated in the letter. The mechanism operates as a functional control over the freedom of movement of streaming PW concentrations that have gained access to the upper level of the atmosphere, within a section fully separated from the tropical belt, in either of the hemispheres. The mechanism itself is the same in both hemispheres, but the circumstances that determine how its operation proceedses in each case are never the same. As a result there are likely to be considerable differences, apart from normal seasonal difference, in the way PW is distributed in each of these zones, which largely depends on how much its movement is restricted by interference due to contrasts in jetstream wind activity.

It is a well-recognized fact.that the NH has been warming up quite rapidly over the past 40 years or so while the SH has lagged well behind. Moreover, current readings in the SH suggest a trend of no warming at all outside of its tropical parts. One reason for this is simply because the SH is far more composed of ocean surfaces, which are always ready to transfer a larger portion of incoming radiation increases to places of storage below the surface than land surfaces are capable of doing, leaving these surfaces a little less warm as a result. La Nina conditions presently occurring in the Pacific probably intensify that effect. Another reason.pertains to the massive geographical differences between the two polar zones. Antarctica is dominated by a high mountain of bitterly cold ice which has proven resistant to any kind of surface melting up to this point. This is a good reason for why it keeps its blue zone (as described in yesterday’s letter), and the jetstream winds around it, almost unchanged for all 12 months of the year. The Arctic, on the other hand, is dominated by an ocean that is not elevated at all, leaving the thick ice that covers it more easily subject to melting from increases in radiation, plus any feedbacks that go with the melting. One consequence has been the shrinking of the Arctic’s air pressure blue zone and the jetstream winds at its perimeter, both of which are soon likely to completly disappear for the rest of the summer.

The green zone in the north has also been shrinking, in tune with the blue zone, and that is in part because its entire area is gaining more incoming radiation. Based on observations taken from the weather maps (including the animated map) I believe the radiation increase is to a large extent a consequence of an increase in the northbound movement of PW, which in turn is a consequence of the observed weakening of jetstream activity in the area.  If we had jetstream maps in hand, similar to those of today, available from 40 years ago, or before Arctic sea ice began its pronounced summer melting sequence, I suspect the maps would show wind strength and positioning not much different from what we are currently seeing around Antarctica. PW activity in the Arctic would then most likely be suffering the same kind of restrictions as it now does in the south. 

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The overall growth of greenhouse energy production is widely accepted as the principal cause of the trend of increases in Earth’s average temperature, proceeding at an average rate of approximately 0.18C per decade for the last 4-plus decades. This stepped-up rate of growth began at about the same time that significant changes began being noted in the Arctic region, with summertime melting and decaying of sea ice as its primary signature. Arctic temperatures have been accelerating throughout this period, having effects that reach well beyond the ocean and the full Arctic circle. The rest of the planet cannot match this pace, and Antarctic surface temperatures rank well down among the laggards, leaving overall temperature growth in a high state of imbalance between the two hemispheres. The way PW is distributed in the upper atmosphere of each hemisphere, as described in Carl’s theory, can serve as a key factor of explanation behind the principal divergences that mark these recent decades.

Carl

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