Climate Letter #1969

In recent letters I have drawn attention to something real that is going on in the upper atmosphere that I think has important implications for the study of climate change but is rarely ever mentioned. I want to describe it more fully, so no reader is left unsure about what this means. It has much to do with what I refer to as “the blue zone” on maps of high-altitude air pressure configuration—which may possibly be re-identified as “high-altitude air-density configuration,” a matter still under consideration These maps are identified on the Climate Reanalyzer website as “500hPa Geopot. Height,” a term that can’t possibly ring any bells of familiarity with more than a handful of individuals. The map itself is an assembly of seemingly meaningless shapes that could have been borrowed from an abstract painting. What can they possibly represent that has a degree of reality?

After about two years of being puzzled I came to realize that the maps represent the effect of air pressure “match-ups” that start to take shape at an altitude of around three miles.  The different effects take on the form of a configuration that can be compared with the configuration of highs and lows of surface air pressured that we are all familiar with by virtue of regularly published images in the weather media.  In the atmosphere above three miles the concept of high and low takes on a whole new meaning, tied to what happens when we match the effect of upward air pressure with that which is coming down, as it specifically occurs starting at the 3-mile level. Warm air at the surface expands, which tends to push everything directly above it—which is mostly just more air—to a higher level above the surface, making all of that air less dense than otherwise at any one given level.  In contrast, cold surface air tends to contract, keeping everything above it relatively lower and more dense at the same given level. At three miles up all of the air gets colder and more uniform, and stays that way going on up from there, but the newly created configuration comparing higher to lower air densities, no matter what level we want to refer to, apparently does not change.  These side-by-side differences in density follow patterns that can extend for long distances, and be depicted on maps in the form of isobars.  Physically, they create pathways, certain ones of which stand out by encouraging winds to come up and start blowing. These winds have their own peculiarities, differing in a number of ways from those that follow the set of isobar pathways constructed at the surface.

Assuming this to be a fairly accurate description of a big and rather complex picture, there is one detail not to be forgotten—the fact that surface air temperatures have a powerful hand in shaping the structure of the atmosphere as we know it, starting at the three-mile mark.  The process must be happening continuously, even between day and night to some extent, and certainly over the course of months, years, and longer.  By implication, anything that causes change to temperatures at the surface, if on a large enough scale, is thus destined to cause changes in the way winds blow in the upper part of the atmosphere, via a mechanism mediated by pressure-related adjustments to the structural pattern of isobar formation that is tied to differing air densities.

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By comparing air temperature maps and 500hPa Geopot mas we know how the blue zone on the latter is a near-perfect overlay of below freezing daily temperatures on the former. We also know the same relationship holds for the green zone, in this case from zero to about 10C. By intent of the map designers, both of these zones tend to shrink and fade in color when temperatures on the surface become significantly warmer. When we see them shrink and fade we can refer to the jetstream wind maps and look for any unusual differences. The inevitable signs of deterioration are immediately reflected in changes in activity recorded on the precipitable water (PW) maps, allowing relatively rich concentrations of PW in the upper atmosphere to overrun moisture-poor surfaces near or within the polar zone.

Carl’s theory of PW’s greenhouse energy effect, part 3, is coming into fruition. I think it will be built around this statement: “Anything that causes a significant increase in surface temperatures in the higher latitudes will serve to amplify the greenhouse energy effect of high-altitude PW concentrations, even though no increase in radiation output is required, the consequence of which will be still higher temperatures at the surface.” PW and certain other unrelated natural phenomena can become inexorably linked in this manner, by feeding back on each other.

Carl

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