A forecast for global temperatures from the UK weather bureau. The central estimate from the Met Office is plus 1.10C from the pre-industrial baseline, with a full range of 0.98-1.22. That compares with the actual record of 1.15 which was set in 2016, and 1.08 in 2015, the #2 year so far. A modest El Nino is figured in, but with a lower impact than that of the record year. The overall trajectory since 1975 still follows a highly linear pathway which, if extended without interruption, would reach plus 1.5C by about 2040.
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The political response to climate change is being compared to the appeasement policy of Neville Chamberlain. The author, writing for The Guardian, sees a number of global economic threats like those of the 1930s, on top of which climate change is invading world order much like Hitler’s armies did. His evaluation of the current moment is interesting: “Katowice was the real Munich and the feeble UN accord the equivalent of the piece of paper Chamberlain brought back home with him from his meeting with Hitler. Appeasement doesn’t work and merely delays necessary policy action. That was true in the late 30s and it is true again today. Ultimately, policymakers have a choice. They can put their economies on an environmental war footing or they can continue to bottle it. In the 30s, they acted in time, but only just. For today’s appeasers, the moment of truth is nigh.”
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The New York Times has an in-depth report, beautifully illustrated, showing how the warming of ocean waters is changing the nature of life on the Galapagos Islands. There have always been roller coaster swings in those temperatures but now the baseline is rising, posing stiff challenges for adjustment by many iconic species.
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Some new thoughts about the prospects for ice sheet melting in Antarctica. Evidence has been found that Antarctica, not Greenland, was responsible for most of the sea level rise—about 20 to 30 feet—that occurred during the late stages of the last interglacial period about 120,000 years ago. Maximum temperatures during that period are thought to have been about one degree higher than what we have today—and are soon likely to match as things now look. The evidence, while not yet conclusive, suggests that the West Antarctic portion of the continent’s ice largely disappeared for awhile at that time. “Our record thus provides the first direct indication of a much smaller last interglacial West Antarctic ice sheet,” the research paper says, adding the work provides the historic geological context for the susceptibility of the West Antarctic ice sheet to collapse again.”
–A write-up in Science magazine provides a more expanded review of the study from which the above story was derived, with information about more testing to be done in 2019:
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A review of current progress in battery technology. The featured product, developed at MIT, is heading toward the commercial production stage for likely availability by 2020. Other new prospects are also discussed.
Carl