Two new papers show why there was no “pause” in the global warming trend during this century. These are a bit esoteric, and were composed mainly for the benefit of scientists who set up models for climate behavior and need to keep them fresh. There are plenty of fluctuations in the observed temperature data, as clearly seen on all historical charts, which are due to any number of temporary conditions of an unusual nature. The problem for scientists is to understand and consolidate the precise causes of each fluctuation. Learning how to do that is an ongoing process and the best current models demonstrate a significant ability not to be fooled by erroneous interpretations. Both of the papers, which are related in authorship, have DOI links at the end of the story if you wish to read them.
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More comment on the study that was featured in yesterday’s letter. The link below sets up the chart that I recommended for the important story it tells about global climate history since 1900. The top part of the first chart is worth another look, and it also helps to read the lower note about what is signified by each of the three lines. This is a perfect example of a “pause” in the global warming trend, as it occurred in much of the last century, which was much greater than the one talked about in the story above. It was not so much a pause as just a failure of air temperatures to do much of anything in response to a slowly rising trend of greenhouse gas forcing. There was indeed a small response until about 1940, but that is when the post-depression cooling effect of aerosol pollution really kicked in and grew at a very much faster rate for 30-some years, after which it basically stabilized while shifting toward new regional sources. Once pollution stopped growing actual temperatures could start to fully reflect the growth rate of greenhouse gases, but with some catching up still to be finished once the air becomes totally clear. The aerosol pollution effect is very hard to measure, but we know it is there and that fairly good estimates can be generated, and we also know its cooling impact is of huge proportions. The best example of such is seen in that stretch of time between the late 1930s and early ’70s. (Don’t tell Donald Trump that the EPA was responsible for much of the warming trend we have seen ever since, as that will give him a new excuse for wrecking the agency.)
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A new study shows how models have correctly depicted the drought episodes affecting Cape Town, South Africa. Three authors of the study give us an explanation of how the work was done and what it means. “The results from different models vary but they all show that the risk of drought has increased substantially because of global warming. Our best estimate is that the risk of a drought of this size has increased by a factor of just over three…..In addition to assessing current risk, our analysis also showed that with a further doubling of global warming over today from 1.0 to 2.0 degrees – likely to happen sometime in the next 50 years – there is a further threefold increase in risk of severe drought.”
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A fascinating twist on the economic impact of sea level rise. In Miami, as one would expect, it turns out that all of the low-lying real estate is owned by wealthy parties while the high ground belongs to the lower classes. Because of the growing threat of sea level rise, far-sighted developers are starting to snap up anything they can buy on the higher ground, leading to a boom in prices, and a new set of problems for the city and those who are displaced.
Carl