“Carl’s theory of precipitable water’s greenhouse effect.” I have yet to think of a better name for the theory that will encompass all of the main points that I believe are not otherwise described with the same high amount of clarity in scientific literature. The theory is divided into two parts. The conclusions drawn in part 1 were summarized in recent letters. Basically, the effect merits recognition as a fully independent reality. We have all the tools needed to measure its powers on a daily basis with an astounding amount of depth and clarity, but these tools have not yet been put to use. The theory offers a prediction, in specific numbers, about how the warming power will be described once the necessary studies have been completed. The powers, like those of carbon dioxide, are expressed logarithmically. They lead to actual results on surface temperatures that are characterized by an extreme amount of variability.
Today’s letter will provide a short introduction to the content of the second part of the theory. Part 2 represents an original effort to describe and explain the natural processes involved in causing the extreme level of variability in precipitable water’s (PW’s) greenhouse powers, as identified in part 1. The theory has something new to say about each of these processes, and the new bits of information make it easier to link the processes together into a smooth chain of behavioral cause and effect. Concentrated streams of PW, originating by evaporation along the borders of the tropical belt, find their way into the wind systems that dominate the upper level of the troposphere in a large portion of each of the two hemispheres. These concentrations by themselves have considerable variability in size and location from the very start. What becomes of them after entry into the high-altitude wind systems adds much more to the level of variability, followed up by relatively short and variable lifetimes. All this while each of these concentrations is producing its own greenhouse energy output, which is added to the output of PW concentrations in the same location but in the lower part of the troposphere. Those concentrations tend to be more regular and have greater stability.
The natural processes that form and characterize the upper level of the troposphere have their own influence on the behavior and destiny of each of the PW stream concentrations, marked by individual differences, and it is considerable. Jetstream winds and the unique pattern formation of air pressure differentials at that altitude, which governs the strength and location of jetstreams winds, are the major players. The air pressure pattern in turn is keyed to variations in upward pressure caused by zonal differences in air temperature that exist at the surface. Unceasing change is an aspect of every one of these processes. Greenhouse energy inputs realized at the surface are directly affected by all of these changes.
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Carl