What does Carl’s Theory have to say about the future? As the theory now stands, I don’t think it will make it any easier to create specific predictions by putting actual numbers on future temperature estimates. There are too many uncertainties about how several observed trends, as covered by the theory, will develop in the future. For instance, what do we know about the prospects for significant change in the amount of water vapor entering those upper regions of the troposphere where the wind systems is dominated by jetstream activity? Is acceleration a possibility? Also, is this really even a critical metric? Under Carl’s Theory more importance seems to be attached to questions about the ability of vapor that does enter the zone to make real progress in movement toward the pole, within limits set by its brief lifetime. The farther it can go the more leverage it will have over surface air below that gets drier and drier in locations closest to the poles. The rate of progress is highly irregular, but underlying trends can be detected. These are largely dependent on the specifics of jetstream activity and how it may be trending as a result of air pressure changes at that level. In the current situation there are major differences in jetstream stability playing out in the two hemispheres. All I can say with confidence is that there is considerable potential for the standard greenhouse powers of PW to be amplified when concentrated streams are allowed more freedom of movement toward the poles. Any limit to the ultimate level of such amplification is unclear.
There are a number of different interactions in the upper troposphere that have an influence on PW movement, all of which can be explained in theoretical terms. The most likely sequence of interactions, as observed, inevitably leads to an understanding that favors the development of positive feedback loops. In essence, broadly-based changes in surface air temperatures cause changes in the upper-level air pressure configuration, which affects jetstream activity in ways that ultimately affects the freedom of PW movement and its leverage. The amplified greenhouse energy created when leverage is added will then affect surface air temperatures in a manner that adds yet more warmth to warm temperatures below. When PW movement falls below average the leverage is reversed, resulting in the further cooling of already cold temperatures. Any one of these loops is temporary, but the more powerful ones create heat waves or cold waves that leave behind a legacy of change in subsurface temperatures that is not always modest, and must later be taken into account. The steady drumbeat of current heat waves in the Arctic region can only be adding to this legacy, creating a long-term version of a positive feedback loop
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Carl