Carl’s theory of precipitable water’s greenhouse effect. I wish I had a name for the theory that was shorter, and maybe more catchy, but this is the best I can come up with that is specific in identity and should be all-inclusive. The main subject is quite a narrow one, and yet there are a number of components of the “ice-breaking” type that could be of more broad scientific interest if sustained. I have never seen one thing, written or otherwise, about precipitable water (PW) having its own greenhouse effect on Earth’s weather or climate. It’s not even classified as a subject of investigation. That was the same status held by plate tectonics (what a nice, snappy name!) at the beginning of the last century, until Alfred Wegener came up with some creative observations and a whole new field of study having vast scientific interest was born. PW’s greenhouse effect may not rise to that level of interest, but it does intersect with perhaps the greatest scientific issue of our time, provoking several new ideas—still theoretical—about how nature really works. I don’t see how these ideas can just go away when there is so much evidence available to be looked at. If you think the evidence is reasonable, will you tell someone? I cannot take this to a new level of communication. Too old, and too little energy, but I still hope to write more of these letters, provide more visual evidence, and perhaps add another thought or two about the possible future of the effect. That consideration is unfinished.
Last week I wrote about two things in particular, both covered by the theory, both based on one fully established fact that is utterly astounding—regarding everyday temperature anomalies of an extreme magnitude. By that I mean anomalies, both positive and negative, up to 20C (36F), with a few less common days adding another 5C or more beyond 20C in spots. These are genuine natural phenomena, that cannot be lacking for a real cause, or set of causes, in every instance. There are no gaps in any such set that a rational person can be satisfied with by leaving them unfilled and forgotten about. Carl’s Theory points to evidence that PW’s greenhouse effect is always on hand (along with good data). ready to answer the bell, and has a fabulous record (for those who look) of providing answers that fit where there are gaps of any size. The key number I came up with is 10C per doubling or halving of total PW from historical averages for that particular day of year and location There are numerous other factors in play, all of them falling under a “well-known” classification, but none comes even close to competing with PW as a complete and viable explainer. So why not investigate?
There is one more astounding fact to deal with. Extreme anomalies often take effect in just a day or two, sometimes in only a matter of hours. If PW and its greenhouse effect are responsible, how is this possible, from a physical point of view? No comparison with other producers of greenhouse effects, CO2 for example, is at all helpful, simply because of the enormous difference in how they are distributed in the first place. The spatially evenly-mixed gases all change very, very slowly over time, bit by bit, and then stay put, as concentrations build or decay. PW, primarily composed of water vapor and clouds, is forever making bigger changes, like a few percent at a time, everywhere. But where do all the doubles and redoubles come from, in such short order? And why are they almost always found in the mid-to-upper latitudes? What is it that enables PW to move around and exert its effects in precisely this manner, with so much speed and partial uniformity?
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Carl