After using this letter for about a full year to make comments about what the weather maps are telling us, I have come to realize that there is a certain amount of need for more individuals to become engaged in this study as a long-term commitment. There is no other way to get a full perspective of certain events that are unfolding. The daily snapshots only tell about half the story. The 5-day animation of the movement of total concentrations of precipitable water (PW) is of major help in interpretation, and always ready to access. It needs to be frequently studied and analyzed in order to fully appreciate its fascinating combination of both broad and tiny details. Some critical elements of the visible PW movement can only be explained by interaction with jetstream winds that are located in two large and separated components of the entire atmosphere. The effects these interactions have on surface temperatures then become more meaningful as accidents of random distribution.
So far so good, but it leaves out certain types of information that may have longer-term importance. After following up on this possibility for a full year I can see that there is much information to be reviewed, and that it almost certainly is important. The focus in this case is placed squarely on jetstream activity, how it changes over time, and what causes it to change. I don’t think anyone can gain a full perspective toward this information without doing a year-long study. It takes time and motivation, both of which may be limited. I accidentally had both, and have been impressed by resulting signs of significance. Now I am pleading with others to follow suit, for the sake of confirmation. I have seen how critical jetstream activity can break down, rather quickly at times. Whenever it breaks down to an unusual extent the typical result is an unusual amount of warming in the mid to upper latitudes, caused by an unusual infusion of overhead PW concentrations. The breakdown itself can be directly attributed to manifest deterioration of air pressure differentials that are a unique feature of the upper troposphere in the higher latitudes of each hemisphere. The deterioration process can be detected by changes in a visible pattern of configuration, changes that are directly associated with increases in warming of surface temperatures immediately below.
Surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are getting warmer for a number of well-known reasons. What we now need is a greater depth of study designed to show confirmation of how reverberations can be transmitted in a way that causes physical changes in upper-level air pressure differentials, followed by virtually certain changes in jetstream wind activity, leading to possibly greater infusions of PW concentrations over sensitive territory in the higher latitudes. That in itself is a tall order. The PW still needs to be proven to have consistently extraordinary powers of greenhouse energy generation, something which I firmly believe is inevitable based on evidence revealed each day in the daily weather maps. If all of this is confirmed, how could we not expect to see a likelihood for development of a cycle of self-reinforcing surface temperature warming? There is certain critical questions to be posed in this regard—does the observed breakdown in air pressure differentials occur in a linear manner, or does it accelerate? Should it be viewed in terms of a possible tipping point? I have no real evidence to point to for an answer, one way or the other, but I can see why studies tied to this question are needed and should be scaled up.
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Carl