Climate Letter #1298

New research foresees total loss of the Congo Basin rainforest by 2100 (Mongabay).  “Researchers found that small-scale farming was the biggest driver, contributing to around 84 percent of deforestation…..This kind of farming is primarily done for subsistence by families that have no other livelihood options…..at current rates of deforestation, all primary forest will be gone by the end of the century.”  A fivefold increase in population is projected by that time.  Is there a right way to fix a problem like this, which helps individuals to survive but is devastating to both wildlife and global efforts to control carbon storage?

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Temperate zone forests in certain areas protected from harmful land usage also face extraordinary difficulties, these being attributed to climate change.  “A warmer, drier climate is expected is increase the likelihood of larger-scale forest disturbances such as wildfires, insect outbreaks, disease and drought, according to a new study.”  Part of the western US is cited as an example.  Protected forests in cooler and more rainy climates do not face such large disturbances.
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-climate-severe-wildfires-larger-insect.html
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The Amazon forests have their own set of problems.  Industrial deforestation gets plenty of publicity, and now we learn: “A team of more than 100 scientists has assessed the impact of global warming on thousands of tree species across the Amazon to discover the winners and losers from 30 years of climate change. Their analysis found the effects of climate change are altering the rainforest’s composition of tree species but not quickly enough to keep up with the changing environment.”  Also, droughts in some regions are intensified by deforestation in other regions.
https://phys.org/news/2018-11-amazon-forests-climate.html
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A new report has statistics on the world’s remaining wilderness areas, and a plea for protection (Nature).  “A century ago, only 15% of Earth’s surface was used to grow crops and raise livestock. Today, more than 77% of land (excluding Antarctica) and 87% of the ocean has been modified by the direct effects of human activities.”  The article features a map showing where the remaining wilderness areas are located, most of them in just five countries.  All of these areas are of great value to humanity even when they are not being directly exploited—an abundance of carbon sequestration is just one of the values.
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Opportunities for using hydrogen as a fuel are opening up (Ensia).  One by one, problems that have held back progress in the past are being solved, without getting much attention.  This story sees many welcomed signs of real progress.
–Also, there has been much favorable news lately related to the hope that an abundance of hydrogen might be cheaply produced by splitting water with the energy of sunlight.  Here is one such report just received:
Carl

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