Climate Letter #1299

Future drought severity on the Caribbean islands is foreseen to worsen because of climate change.  That is the conclusion of a new study based at Cornell University, employing methods that could detect the contribution of human-caused temperature increases with high accuracy.  The dangers faced by a total population of 43 million are clearly spelled out.  The region has experienced a drying trend since 1950, reaching a climax in the drought of 2013-16 that was brought on by a strong El Nino.

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–The study has open access and is quite readable, at this link:
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The US government’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an 80% chance of a weak El Nino developing and continuing through this winter.  There is a map that shows typical impacts on the continent, with a note that there can be considerable amounts of variation for each event.
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An appraisal of Brazil’s environmental outlook under its new president (Yale e360).  Many of the projects he favors are factors leading to a faster rate of Amazon deforestation.  It is all well-covered in this article, including some possible constraints, which will likely feature a rise in international pressures of an economic sort, possibly effective.
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There is a movement toward regenerative agriculture in the US (Minnesota Public Radio).  This story features the work of an evangelist behind the movement, Jonathan Lundgren, who is finding ways to convince farmers that the results in economic terms are completely worth the effort.  For example, “Lundgren’s research found that conventional farms spent 32 percent of their gross income to grow the crop. Regenerative farms in the study spent only 12 percent. The biggest savings were from reduced fertilizer and buying seeds not treated with insecticide.”  Agricultural reform—on a global scale—is a vital component of any hope for overcoming disastrous climate change.
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An update on the trend of atmospheric CO2 levels.  The two particular charts on this page provide a perfect means of keeping track of how we are doing to reverse the trend, on both a short and longer term basis.  Every number you might want is ready to be picked up with your pointer.  If we are ever going to see a reversal the very first goal would be to get the annual rate of gain below 2 ppm for more than just a month or two.  That has been the steady rate for this entire century, boosted a bit during the 2015-16 El Nino, and we have not been able to bring it down over the last 2-1/2 years, which were La Nina years, which you can quickly see by using the top chart sliders.  On the bottom chart things have been going fairly well month by month for most of 2018 but not when you compare the latest two months with 2017.  Another El Nino this winter could keep the trend that way, even if the El Nino is no more than a very weak one.  We somehow have to make a real change, and there is not a lot of time.
Carl

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