A realistic view of what renewable energy is capable of accomplishing. This was written by two Australian professors who have done their homework well and cover a good number of the great many bases that need to be covered. Every sentence has useful information, so give it a good look. Of special note: “Remarkably, current annual global growth rates of PV (with support from other renewables) are enough to eliminate coal, oil and gas use in the 2040s(Figure 3 shows the first 14 years).” Depending on how government policies are framed, those current growth rates could be further improved upon, or they could be obstructed. (Pressure from the public could make a difference on those policies.)
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–Extra comment: If all of this were to take place, and be completed in just 25-30 years, it should not be hard to trace out the effects on the global CO2 level. Roughly, the rise due to fossil fuel burning might be held to a total of about 30 ppm by 2050, following a descending track. All other sources of CO2 (plus other greenhouse gases), with deforestation and bad agricultural practices high on the list, would need to be steered downward as well. Here the outlook is much more murky. At the very best, we are still looking at a CO2 level at or above 450 by 2050, but we should be able to eliminate our worries about it going from there to 500 or more, which would be an utter and complete disaster. If 450 were to hold, that by itself is only a mild reason for optimism because we would still need to deal with the problems we have already created and continue to create day after day even as we begin winding down. We could easily be facing Pliocene-like temperatures of plus-3C (versus the preindustrial level) and sea level rise of 20 feet or more once the inertia factors have been overcome and equilibrium is reached. That is why there is so much talk these days about the need to find effective ways to suck carbon out of the atmosphere.
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Relevant to the above story, BNEF foresees a boom in battery storage for renewable energy sources of all different sizes. According to their research, the cost of storage systems, which is already competitive, should decline another 52% by 2030.
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“Financial giants can have a pivotal role for climate stability” (Stockholm Resilience Centre). This article is based on a new study that has uncovered significant opportunity behind the possible awakening of a small group of financial giants. “Our research allows us to identify a small set of international financial players who can influence climate stability through their ownership of stock in economic sectors that modify both the Amazon rainforest and boreal forests…..These institutional investors with a global reach are called ‘Financial Giants’ by the authors because they have a great but unrealized power to influence the resilience of several of the planet’s ‘Sleeping Giants’.”
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Warming of the Arctic is causing the introduction of deadly new pathogens (Yale e360). “Rapid warming and vanishing sea ice in the Arctic has enabled new species, from humpback whales to white-tailed deer, to spread northward. Scientists are increasingly concerned that some of these new arrivals may be bringing dangerous pathogens that could disrupt the region’s fragile ecosystems.” This phenomenon is surprisingly deep and widespread. People are sometimes directly affected.
Carl