Editing note: Due to unexplainable technical difficulties, the map you see here is (most likely) not the same as the one that was originally posted. The verbal description of the original contains important information that can be relied upon for accuracy.
The weather maps are back after three days with no updates, providing more than enough new information to talk about. First, let me say that without the availability of these maps there would be no way for me to continue developing the theme I have been working on for the last six months, connecting high-altitude water vapor streams to global temperature anomalies. The vapor stream website with 5-day animation, a vitally important backup to the maps, has also had technical difficulties, which have not yet cleared. The information these two sites provide is simply not found anywhere else, at least not with such great clarity and convenience. Universities have not yet learned how to incorporate this information into their standard climate study curriculum, an unfortunate oversight that would not be difficult to correct. Is this a matter of consequence for our understanding of climate change? How can it not be? What is more relevant to climate change than temperature anomalies? Why shouldn’t we want to know everything there is to know about the cause of these anomalies, including the “minor” ones, cold as well as hot, that happen on a daily basis? Are they hiding any secrets we should know about, that could add up over time?
Today we can see a pair of extreme anomalies on just one map. The hot one, over the Arctic Ocean, dates back to a first showing on September 24th. It now looks more extreme than ever, with a larger part being no less than +15C. That can be called a heatwave, and it’s not over. The cold one, covering a large share of North America to some extent, has not been around as long, but oh boy, is it cold! I can see anomalies of minus 20C (-36F) in six different states, from Texas to Minnesota. For any piece of land in a temperature zone that number is practically unheard of, at any time of year.
How many different ways are there to add 15C to an average daily air temperature and keep it high for five or six full weeks? More sunshine? Fewer clouds? Warm wind moving in? More CO2? Methane? Any other well-mixed greenhouse gas? Or is there a different kind of genuine greenhouse gas that is not at all well-mixed in the atmosphere because of its relatively brief lifespan, yet plentiful in sources of supply for replacement and highly effective in blocking radiation—more so than any of the others whenever given the chance? Of course there is, and that is only a small part of its story.
Now think about the cause of anomalies from a different perspective. What particular sources of heat are normally present to some extent in all locations, everywhere on the planet, every day? The result for each location, whether or not observed, could be thought of as a daily average. On each new day the actual input of that source can in theory be compared with its daily average. If one of the input sources is of high volatility then the total heating effect from all sources for any one day should also show some degree of high volatility in comparison with the long-term average. And—the greater the observed volatility of actual heating, the greater the relative amount of input due to that particular source of heat must be. This would be equally true whenever the source is added on one day and/or when subtracted on another. Today we have seen examples in both directions on the same map. Is the same heat source involved in both extremes—far above average in one case and far below in another? Without even thinking about scale, is there anything other than water vapor that has such a great range of volatility?
I can see no other candidate that could come even the least bit close. Water vapor can do this simply by exercising its greenhouse effect, without any need for physical movement of heat from one place to another. All that remains is to properly explain the details. How do these things happen, and why on such a large scale? Given the circumstances, where do the magical figures we call “average” come from in the first place? What is the reason for water vapor having so much volatility? How is it controlled? To be continued.
Carl