Climate Letter #1797

The animated TPW (Total Precipitable Water) website–http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php—is now almost back to normal, which is a great relief.  Anyone who is not thoroughly familiar with its content will not have a full grasp of the message I have been trying to convey about the true function of water vapor in the climate system.  I frankly do not think many climate scientists are familiar with it, perhaps by considering it to be nothing more than a standard meteorological tool.  If you know any of these persons, ask them if that is true, and then ask for their own interpretation of what is going on in the midst of all that frantic activity. Perhaps my views about the nature and impact of the outbound streams are all wrong, and they will be glad to explain why.

When you look at Precipitable Water imagery on a weather map—https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#pwtr—the information you get is almost exactly the same as that seen at the very end of a concurrent 5-day movement on the animated site.  (It’s easy to stop the movement for viewing on the last little square.)  The full animated trail will resemble the stationary trail observed on the weather map but they are never the same thing.  The latter is a one-day snapshot from all current vapor locations regardless of how they got there over time.  The animation is useful because it reveals the true extent of the pathway changes that are constantly occurring.  The pace of change informs us that a significant amount of water vapor often exists in the atmosphere over a certain location for just one day and is gone the next—or the reverse.  Then again, positions holding in place for longer periods are also common.

The whole series of weather maps, via comparing one to another, informs us of how surface temperatures at any location are generally affected by a fair amount of abnormal water vapor content in the air above for that one day, subject to a variety of possible offsets. We still need to know what “normal” would be, and that useful bit of information is simply not available. It can be estimated, but only with moderate accuracy. There is no technical reason for the lack of availability of a good historical database having near-perfect accuracy. The problem could be that climate scientists have not yet become aware of any valid reason to call for it, nor have meteorologists, which I hope will change before long.

A careful analysis of the animated TPW charts can only lead to the conclusion that concentrated “streams” of water vapor are somehow being formed every day at locations spotted near the outer edges of the tropical zone. Once formed and set in motion, these streams all have a few things in common that seem quite unusual when compared with the things we know about water vapor from observations made close to Earth’s surface.  In previous letters I have discussed the probability that whatever amount of vapor is solely contained within the observed streams, which would be difficult to calculate, most likely exists at a high altitude and is subject to forces and controls that differ appreciably from those found closer to the surface. Studying the motion of the streams strongly suggests a tendency for regular interaction with well-charted jetstream winds, providing signs of evidence of their altitude and also of the degree of control jetstreams have over their destiny. Many actual examples have been provided in past letters.

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These observations have led me to speculate about a number of consequences that I believe make good sense, but without being fully and properly vetted they are still speculative. Do we really have two separate layers—upper and lower—in the troposphere over each hemisphere outside of the tropical zone, with each layer containing its own distinct body of water vapor? Are the upper-level bodies and their activity vastly different from those below in a number of possibly important ways? An extraordinary unevenness of distribution is one key difference that I think is very well-supported by evidence in the maps and charts. Condensation proclivities are more speculative. Adding together the normal greenhouse powers of whatever amount of vapor temporarily exists in each layer, yielding a single composite effect on surface air temperature directly below, seems to have considerable supporting evidence on the maps. Extensive vetting is a must because of the deep ramifications.

Carl

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