Climate Letter #1256

Highly original new research finds that soil porosity may be greatly reduced in this century because of climate change.  The exact mechanism that allows soil to soak up water has been carefully analyzed and found vulnerable to excessive precipitation.  “The consequences could be less infiltration of water into the ground, more surface runoff and erosion, and more flash flooding.”  This would clearly have an effect on food production in regions that are the most exposed.  (It seems there is always something new to learn about climate change that we don’t like.)

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–You can read the abstract at this link:  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0463-
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A new study finds that the future impacts of both El Nino and La Nina are likely to intensify.  That would happen even if there is no change in the frequency or intensity of the events themselves.  “For example, seasonal heat extremes in the southern half of the U.S. during a La Niña like the one that occurred in 2011 would be about 30 percent greater if they occurred at the end of the century.”  That would seriously affect crop yields, wildfires and a lot more.
https://phys.org/news/2018-09-future-impacts-el-nino-la.html
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How the human influence on today’s climate specifically applies to Hurricane Florence.  Four scientists have put together a quick study based on known principles of attribution science, by comparing what is actually being seen with what probably would have been seen without today’s level of warming.  The storm is 50 miles wider than it would have been, will throw off about 50% more rainfall and remain strong for a longer duration.  Click on the “attribution study” link in the second paragraph to see the report.
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A situation known as “compound flooding” is becoming more common and gaining serious attention (Scientific American).  The situation occurs when a hurricane like Florence brings a powerful storm surge onto a coastline and holds it there for several days just as it dumps dozens of inches of rain on top of it.  The water has no place to go apart from having the ability to cause flooding possibly hundreds of miles inland.
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Giant piles of toxic coal ash are an especially worrisome risk from Hurricane Florence (Inside Climate News).  These piles are part of the legacy of coal-fueled power plants, often poorly managed.  Some are 100 feet high and most are situated next to rivers.
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A little bit of cheerful news can’t hurt.  The American public may enable the nation to keep up its end of the Paris bargain in spite of the Trump administration.  “In fact, since the White House announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, more than 3,000 US cities, states, businesses and other groups have declared their commitment to the Paris agreement…..Together, these groups form the third-largest economy in the world, and they represent more than half the total US population.”
Carl

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