Good chance of an El Nino event starting later this year. It would be weaker than the big one that peaked in 2016, but could still be big enough to give temperatures an extra boost, especially in 2019. As discussed in yesterday’s letter, continental (land) air temperatures peaked at an average of 1.8C in 2016, about one-half degree higher than the global average, also an historical peak, which is so low because it includes all of the air above the ocean surfaces. Since the basic trend is rising it is possible that the record high could be broached next year in the wake of a moderately strong El Nino, but probably not otherwise.
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Climate change does not cause hurricanes but can make them all stronger (Quartz). This article does an exceptionally good job of briefly explaining how hurricanes form and how their strength is so dependent on the temperature of the particular ocean water route that a storm is passing over. That factor is making a big difference in the case of Florence. Ocean temperatures in general are slowly creeping upward year after year.
–The Guardian has a story in much greater depth about the strengthening of hurricanes in the Atlantic, with numerous charts and historical references:
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The annual report about global undernourishment has been published by the UN. After declining for over a decade the numbers have now risen for three consecutive years, with one person in nine going hungry. “We had been making progress in curbing hunger and malnutrition, but those gains made are being eroded by climate variability and exposure to more complex, frequent and intense climate extremes.” In much of the world malnutrition is probably the most dangerous of the projected impacts from climate change.
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An update on international action to reduce emissions and adapt to a warmer world (Deutsche-Welle). One conference just ended and a bigger one is coming up in December. While some progress on rules is being made, this story is mostly about the unfilled goals for funding adaptation/protection efforts in the poorest nations. “The Paris Agreement cannot be implemented without climate finance….The failure of rich countries to deliver adequate resources has severe ramifications for people and communities in the Least Developed Countries and around the world that are already bearing the brunt of climate change on a daily basis.”
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Humans started changing the climate about 7,000 years ago. Bill Ruddiman, a legendary figure in climate science, was one of the authors of this fascinating study about how early farmers and loggers kept the Earth from slipping into another Ice Age long before the Industrial Revolution. “They document widespread deforestation in Europe beginning around 6,000 years ago, the emergence of large farming settlements in China 7,000 years ago, plus the spread of rice paddies — robust sources of methane — throughout northeast Asia by 5,000 years ago.” Not a bad idea, if we had just known when to quit.
Carl