A future climate appraisal from the University of Washington. Researchers have calculated a range of probabilities of where the temperature increase will actually end up by the year 2100, after taking into account all of the various ways that humans might respond. They find a 90% chance that the number will fall between 2.0 and 4.9C, with the single most likely number being 3.2. This is very close to what other appraisals have been saying based only on how nations have reacted so far in making pledges under the Paris accord, under an assumption that negative emissions technology will not succeed in making a meaningful contribution. That is perhaps the biggest unknown at this time.
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A recent article by another group, which included Kevin Anderson, published in a scientific journal with a paywall, is critical of all scenarios that make optimistic assumptions about negative emissions technology which may never be fulfilled. These authors recommend that more attention be given in the short term to practices known to be achievable, if only there is a will to act. You can at least read the abstract and about relevance to policy decisions.
–If you have never watched a Kevin Anderson lecture on youtube I certainly recommend it as time well spent. Here is a link to one of them, which also shows links to several others. Kevin’s logic is impeccable. The kind of lifestyle that has emerged in the advanced stages of industrial civilization needs to be taken down a notch or two if we seriously want to quickly reduce and eliminate carbon emissions.
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Key data about climate records set in 2016 taken from a new annual report issued by the NOAA. It gives the impression that the overall pace of change is accelerating. There was even a new record regarding the global experience of extreme drought.
Carl