What are cold anomalies made of? Warm anomalies are easy to understand. All you need to do is to pick one off the anomaly map—the bigger and stronger it is, the easier to analyze—and look for a well-built stream of precipitable water (PWat) feeding it, as viewed on another map. There is a virtual certainty that one will appear, and the color code will show how strong the effect becomes. Then, if you know what the “normal” PWat load is for that location you should see that the percentage of gain from its increase will most likely correspond with the size of the gain in the anomaly. Just remember that each double of PWat will add 10C to the air temperature under a clear sky, and then extrapolate. Getting a good estimate for the “normal” vapor reading is possible, if you work at it, by making an assortment of comparisons with nearby areas.
Cold anomalies are an entirely different story. I have been spending some time trying to come up with the best explanation for their formation and have found there is no one big thing. There are a number of possible explanations and you have to go looking for them, not expecting something to just pop out immediately. A complete absence of an overhead PWat stream must cause a cool anomaly for the simple reason that every day, on average, will always have a warming history of some size exclusively derived from many previous events. Having nothing at all overhead for a whole day is quite rare in most locations. Actual anomalies due to being below average by some amount should generally not be sizeable nor be of much interest. The bigger anomalies that we do see are much more interesting because of one simple reason—they are typically made possible by some kind of activity created within overhead PWat streams, precisely the same streams that also provide us with big warming anomalies in other places!
The warm anomalies we see have often been reduced to some extent by everyday cloud cover generated by vapor condensation. The amount of reduction can periodically be enlarged by certain variations in cloud formations, enough to move the needle from warm to cold, or even to very, very cold. The weather map showing precipitation and clouds is always a handy guide for reference, but it does not provide any real depth of information. Fortunately, there is another source available to fill in that gap, and it does so with an unbelievable amount of easy-to-access detail—the website called Windy. Here is a link to it: https://www.windy.com/. If you are not familiar with Windy I recommend reserving a good bit of time to look over all the things it has to offer, which are taken from a wide assortment of inputs that are utterly amazing. Be sure you learn how to operate the widget, which quickly provides whatever exact and almost real-time information you may want from virtually any spot on the globe.
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Does the actual balance between warm and cold anomalies, whatever it may be, have a tendency to change over time, especially when a warming trend like that of today is in effect? I think that’s a question worthy of investigation.
Carl