Climate Letter #1705

Through these letters I have identified the components and functioning of a special kind of temperature feedback loop, the substance of which is not well-recognized in other literature. There are other feedback loops made up of altogether different components that have the same kind of continuously amplifying effect on temperatures, though not on the same scale, and these do get attention. One that is very familiar is set in motion when anomalous warming causes a reduction in Arctic sea ice coverage. Its absence effectively reduces the normal albedo of the ice, which means more incoming solar radiation will be absorbed by newly exposed water instead of being reflected back to space. This creates a new source of energy radiation flux from the surface, which adds warmth to the surrounding air, which will serve to provide further melting of the remaining ice, and so on. This has been going on for decades while picking up speed, with highly visible results. The process was initiated by heat due to rising levels of greenhouse gases, and is still being further stretched by their continuation. Follow-on effects of the ice loss tend to be globalized.

Another temperature feedback loop that is familiar has also been occurring in the Arctic region over much the same time frame, initiated and propelled forward just like the first, but this time on land. It involves the thawing of permafrost soils that are chuck full of old biomass loaded with carbon that is ready to be converted into CO2 or CH4 and released to the atmosphere. These gases simply add to the load produced by human activity, helping to magnify its warming effect on the global atmosphere and speeding up the thawing of yet more permafrost. This particular feedback loop is showing signs of dangerous acceleration, based on the vast amount of vulnerable carbon held in store by frozen soil that is getting ever closer to a melting point.

The loop I have identified has an entirely different set of components and functions, arrived at through a chain of events involving processes that largely occur high in the atmosphere. A full explanation is dependent on certain novelties that can account for its lack of familiarity. For example, the principal agent that does the warming is a single greenhouse gas, water vapor. According to conventional climate science water vapor is not believed to have any such level of independence, that would allow it to generate its extraordinary powers in ways that are beyond the control by other forces, which are typically represented as powers of carbon dioxide. I do not think this view is accurate.

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That does not mean water vapor is being found in places where there is no control at all. Quite the contrary. Under certain circumstances, specifically those where the potential feedback loop is in effect, its power is effectively held in check in a unique and unexpected way by the natural phenomena that exist as jetstream winds.  Everything happens through a collision of forces miles high in the atmosphere, where the jetstreams are situated.  The water vapor had to somehow find a way of getting up there to begin with, before for any such encounter could take place.  That part is not a mystery.  Massive quantities of vapor that arise from surface waters are the source of all the clouds we see in the sky, all the rain and snow that comes down and so forth.  We should not be surprised if some of the vapor that produced these things during thousands of miles of travel in the form of aerial rivers and streams is left unconverted, or uncondensed, in a mode where it is free to act on its own volition.  All it may be seeking is normal diffusion, everywhere, just like all other gases do, and easily accomplished in short order but for the presence of the many jetstream winds that keep getting in the way.

The control that jetstreams have over water vapor, normally strong and steady, is almost certainly nothing more than an accident of nature.  It can also be seen as perishable, provided something happens that causes these winds to lose their powers of control.  Science has been telling us how this can be accomplished, and has also been showing evidence that the process is well underway.  Warm air anomalies at lower levels are the primary requirement for initiation of jetstream weakening.  Once the weakening has begun any sky-high water vapors that are in the right position will be able to start pushing their way into regions that have not been previously visited as often or in such numbers as are now made possible.  Those visits then allow the unrestrained exercise of greenhouse powers of high magnitude on the air below, with a warming result that leads to further weakening of the jetstreams above.  All the makings of an unprecedented temperature feedback loop are thereby emplaced, and we can see them today in full operation, leading to stories like this one:  https://www.cbsnews.com/news/arctic-hottest-temperature-ever/

Carl

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