Climate Letter #571

A discussion about the risks of climate change.  The current El Nino effects, which are noticeably upsetting, provide a preview of what things can be like in ordinary years as climate conditions generally worsen.  Major insurance companies and military strategists are among the worriers.

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A pair of tropical cyclones, unprecedented for this time of year.  One of them is heading straight toward Greenland, the one in the Pacific is now rated as a hurricane.
Last minute news—both storms are now hurricanes.
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How reliable is temperature data derived from satellites?  Satellite temperature records, widely promoted by climate change deniers, have been falling behind those based on direct measurements taken at the surface.  Most climate scientists are more trusting of the latter.  This video tells the story.  The post also contains an early chart of a final full-year report from a reputable source of direct measurement data.  Others will soon follow.
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2015 was the driest year on record for South Africa.  El Nino is thought to be mainly responsible, with expectations of a return to normal by April or May.  However, “Ominously, climate change models suggest this trajectory may become the norm, with Africa’s southern, sub-tropical zone becoming warmer and drier….”  This will all bear watching.
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A new study of the way ice sheets collect and release methane.  This helps to explain the ups and downs of atmospheric methane during the ice age glaciation episodes.  It also raises concerns about what lies beneath the ice sheets that still exist, and show signs of melting.  Major glaciation cycles, normally originating with changes in solar radiation, were driven in both directions by the engagement of positive feedbacks, mainly involving trends of change in the presence of methane, CO2 and surface albedo.
Carl

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