Climate Letter #1615

A new “Climate Reality Check” from the author of Climate Code Red.  Australian activist David Spratt can always be relied upon for views that are well-backed by climate science, which he has been avidly studying for decades.  There is nothing here that I would quibble with except maybe the idea that the global average temperature is locked in to reach plus-1.5C by 2030—only one decade from now—under practically every scenario.  I would add another four or five years to that date simply because for the past forty years the growth rate has held steady at 0.18C per decade, under a variety of natural developments, and there is no obvious reason for the rate to change.  We have just barely reached 1.2C, and that’s only by virtue of using a front-loaded 5-year average and an unusual absence of any strong La Nina years recently—which would have pulled temperature growth down a good bit.  The chart in the post that is full of little colored dots is worth taking time to study because it provides a clear picture of why it is so important for getting political action into high gear without any further delay.
It viagra samples makes you feel more enjoyable. Meds utilized for these strategies are: Mahanarayan oil, Mahamash oil, Mahasaindhav oil, Dashmool qadha (decoction) and viagra online sales Nirgundi qadha. These three benefits mentioned above are just few information’s in relation generic professional cialis to the supplements. To many, aging means the loss of the performance, dying regarding a liked a side effects cialis particular one, nor different disenchantment, stimulates lots of the signs having to do with depression.
—–
A message from the New Zealand actor Russell Crowe (The Guardian).  It’s very well spoken, and the video is only one minute long.  His point about how the need to act as a whole society is what counts, no matter what we do as individuals, is noteworthy, and not at all easy to imagine, especially on the scale of global society as a whole.
—–
A government research report produced in Finland foresees an oil industry meltdown (MotherboardVice).  This is an extraordinary work of analysis, based on the inescapable observation that maintaining rapid growth of the world economy in recent years has been based on the shaky combination of a booming US shale industry and a similar boom in excessive credit formation by many governments.  “Currently, the bulk of continued expansion in global supply is dependent on the United States. With the US shale sector on the verge of breakdown, the report warns that the window of oil market viability is closing, which suggests the resumption of the 2008 correction will be soon…..In short, this means we need an extremely rapid shift to renewables, along with a total reorganization of how our societies function for the coming post-fossil fuels world.”
—–
Economics researchers argue that companies in the energy business are exposed to physical climate risks that are not correctly priced in today’s financial markets (University of California – Davis).  The focus of this report is not so much on energy producers as on utilities, processors and service companies where company properties and customers are both badly affected by extreme weather events.  (California may have more than an ordinary share of these risks.)
—–
A new report predicts the future extinction rate of plants and animals from climate change based on close observation of actual factors that cause their declines (University of Arizona).  “Accurately predicting biodiversity loss from climate change requires a detailed understanding of what aspects of climate change cause extinctions, and what mechanisms may allow species to survive…..Román-Palacios and Wiens analyzed data from 538 species and 581 sites around the world. They focused on plant and animal species that were surveyed at the same sites over time, at least 10 years apart. They generated climate data from the time of the earliest survey of each site and the more recent survey. They found that 44% of the 538 species had already gone extinct at one or more sites…..We also estimated how quickly populations can move to try and escape rising temperatures. When we put all of these pieces of information together for each species, we can come up with detailed estimates of global extinction rates for hundreds of plant and animal species…..They found that about 50% of the species had local extinctions if maximum temperatures increased by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius, and 95% if temperatures increase by more than 2.9 degrees Celsius…..we could lose more than a third or even half of all animal and plant species, based on our results.”  (Considering that we are heading toward a 3C global increase in this century their conclusion is quite sobering.)
Carl

This entry was posted in Daily Climate Letters. Bookmark the permalink.