New CO2 comparisons have been released. As feared, December reported an increase of a full 3.00 ppm over the mean number from the year ago month. I would guess that about 0.8 ppm of that was added over the last three months just from extra-high fire levels. That same 0.8 will also affect the year-end over year-end gain, which has temporarily been set at a record plus-3.17 ppm. That compares with the previous record gain of 2.93 set in 1998, which was also a year of extraordinary fires, mainly in Indonesia. (Scroll down to the bar chart.) 2016, like 1998, will bear more high risks in the case of Indonesia because of similarities in the past and present El Nino cycles that tend toward drought buildup for that region. Altogether, more stress for carbon budget watchers.
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2015 has also been a bad year for global warming. Attention now is being turned not just toward El Nino, but to an even grander cycle known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. That’s all about the long-term shifting of wind patterns and dominant air pressure regimes in the Pacific region. This post contains an excellent chart showing how that has played out in the past, along with some explanations. The cycle certainly helps account for the rather weak 15-year temperature pause we have recently experienced. It is less certain that a whole new warm phase in that cycle has begun, something that should take another several years to clearly demonstrate.
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Climate science: Measuring the comparison of recent trends of global warming and energy input from the sun. Scientists are constantly seeking to improve the accuracy of the solar data, both historical and current. This post explains how differences are being handled, shown in two contrasting charts. One thing for certain is that the relationship has gotten far out of balance since the 1960s—probably best explained by interference caused by greenhouse gases?
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Three reasons for feeling more optimistic about the human response to climate change. This well-written post makes a number of observations that actually quite realistic and meaningful, not just wishful thinking. 2015 was a productive year. Now we have to see if 2016 can become even more productive. Momentum, once established, can take on a life of its own.
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Another record set for solar cell efficiency. The conversion rate of 29.8% from this technology is well above record figures we often see for other types of cells, in the 25-26% area. Note that it also beats the theoretical limit of 29.4% for crystalline silicon by itself, leading to hopes that still higher numbers can be achieved with the extra layer added. The cost of solar energy is going to keep coming down!
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Some way far-out technology for harvesting solar energy. This highly imaginative idea is being worked on by real people, who are hoping to build a prototype. I see lots of logic but too many complexities.
Carl