Some nifty charts for tracking changes. The first shows well-recorded temperatures from an 1880-1909 baseline, which is not pre-industrial. That baseline would be one-quarter degree lower, for a plus-1.3C total. The third chart shows just how a typical El Nino event unfolds seasonally over a two-year period. Most of the heat will likely be released over about the first eight months of the second calendar year, which is just now starting for us. The last chart, even without adding a very warm December, suggests that we have plenty of momentum in place for 2016 to build on.
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Signs of a shift in India’s energy development. The big news is that the cost of huge solar power projects is coming down much faster than expected, making a meaningful dent in the outlook for coal. The latest contract prices are more than 20% lower than those of similar ones from just a year ago. No one nation will have more leverage than India over global emissions in the next couple of decades.
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From The New Yorker magazine, “The Next Great Famine.” This is the story of a great famine that occurred seven hundred years ago, due to natural causes. There have been a number of others like it. “One of the most important insights of recent studies is that, when the climate changes, it can do so swiftly and relentlessly.” Why would unnatural causes be any different?
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Interview with a pioneer glaciologist. Claude Lorius had an interesting and productive career exploring Antarctica, starting in 1957. He made the important discovery (while drinking whiskey) that there were testable air bubbles trapped in ancient ice. A fascinating man.
A film about his life and work is now showing in theaters, “Ice and the Sky,” reviewed at this link:
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About the rapid warming of the world’s lakes. A study published about one month ago has caused much concern, with follow-up informal reports that attempt to fully explain the reasons why. The average warming rate of 0.34C per decade is more than double the warming rate of both the lower atmosphere and ocean surface water, with proportionately greater ecological effects of a negative sort.
Extra comment: Lake water has about the same ability to capture and store the sun’s energy as ocean water, but the facility for storage is much different. Oceans are able to pass much of their acquired heat on to much lower and colder depths, while lakes are obliged to hold relatively more of it at levels much closer to the surface.
Carl