Climate Letter #546

Posted on December 8, 2015 by Carl Campbell
Monthly atmospheric CO2 report.  November 2015 was not a good month for emissions, most likely because of the extraordinary peatland fires that were burning in Indonesia.  This resulted in a gain of about 2.9 ppm over the level we saw one year ago, instead of something closer to 2 ppm that we have become accustomed to.  Fortunately the fires died down in December, so the next one-month increase will be smaller, but what the fires produced cannot be quickly erased.  Otherwise, many reports suggest that global emissions from energy production alone may have declined a bit so far in 2015, thanks mostly to China’s cutback in coal usage.

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The sticking points in Paris.  The Paris conference may or may not live up to what those with the highest hopes are looking for.  If it does not, certain conflicts of interest are likely to be responsible.  These conflicts are real, and somehow need to be overcome, within a relatively brief period of time.  The author of this post does a good job of analyzing this difficult situation.  Nature has its ways, so too with human nature.
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In Africa, a different story is emerging.  This time the story is positive, and seems immune to whatever else is going on.  “An Africa-wide mega-scale initiative backed by all African heads of state should see the continent greatly increase its renewable energy over the next 15 years.”  Such a level of unity is in itself remarkable, but makes perfectly good sense.  I think they will get plenty of voluntary outside help and encouragement.  (Check out the next story.)
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Support grows for reducing the global warming limit from 2C to 1.5C.  The most vulnerable nations are clamoring for it, and getting some interesting support, at least as a talking point.  Even if totally unrealistic it should remain part of the discussion going forward so that plans for how to get there, possibly in a real emergency, could be addressed and even initiated in the most rational way.
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A survey of expert opinion on the economics of climate change.  This work is largely based on the standard climate predictions issued by climate scientists, which can be followed up by studies of detailed economic effects via methods best measured and understood by professional economists.  A large majority of respondents visualized damages of several types being quite a bit more costly than usual estimates.  They should be given heed.
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Unfavorable effects from warmer nighttime temperatures.  Nights are in fact warming up faster than days.  A new study shows how this upsets the rhythm of plant respiration, with a result that puts growing amounts of CO2 back into the atmosphere, thus weakening the carbon sink effect.
Carl

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