Bill McKibben has a trenchant analysis of big government hypocrisy that is in conflict with official climate mitigation policies (The Guardian). His focus is on Canada but the same attitude, perhaps a bit less egregious, is on display all over the world. Trudeau speaking: “No country would find 173 billion barrels of oil in the ground and leave them there.” McKibben’s rejoinder: “There’s obviously something hideous about watching the Trumps and the Putins of the world gleefully shred our future. But it’s disturbing in a different way to watch leaders pretend to care – a kind of gaslighting that can reduce you to numb nihilism.” (We should not ignore the fact that much of the public, hoping for some kind of economic benefit, is willing to let them get away with it.)
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Big business is now getting the full message about the climate crisis and how it will affect them, in depth (The New Yorker). The message is being delivered by McKinsey & Company, a giant management consultant firm, based on advice provided by Woods Hole Research Center. It actually attacks and falsifies the assumptions that underlie the commonly held beliefs about unlimited economic growth. This article introduces a leading spokesman who seems to be quite effective.
–This link has an introduction to the McKinsey message, including a link to download the full report, which is practically a textbook of climate change:
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Fred Pearce has a great explanation of the meaning of climate sensitivity, the issues that surround it, and why the questions about cloud impact are so critical (Yale e360). This is a perfect way to follow up the lead story in yesterday’s letter. Climate sensitivity is not the easiest thing for the public to understand because it is broken up into a number of parts, all of which are subject to uncertainties about what to include, the timing issues, and what the best data is saying about each component. Fred does a masterful job of laying everything out, with many outside references, well worth all the study time you can give it. The biggest question in all of climate science (when CO2 is doubled) simply does not yet have an answer that one can rely upon, no matter what so many have kept saying about the finality of ‘plus-3C.’
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Researchers have developed a thorough understanding of “abrupt thawing” of permafrost and have approximated the results, which are highly significant (University of Colorado at Boulder). “Abrupt thawing of permafrost will double previous estimates of potential carbon emissions from permafrost thaw in the Arctic, and is already rapidly changing the landscape and ecology of the circumpolar north…..Some 20% of the Arctic region has conditions conducive to abrupt thaw due to its ice-rich permafrost layer…..abrupt thawing is fast and dramatic…..Forests can become lakes in the course of a month, landslides occur with no warning…..even though at any given time less than 5% of the Arctic permafrost region is likely to be experiencing abrupt thaw, their emissions will equal those of areas experiencing gradual thaw.” This study by a group of veteran scientists was published in a leading journal. While the exact result of permafrost thawing is still unknown, the degree of extra, near-term carbon emissions to be expected from this particular kind of source has never before been given such an accounting.
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A well-illustrated story about three species of “supertrees,” found on three different continents, and their vital role in protecting us from climate collapse (Vox). “But can we protect them?”
Carl