Climate Letter #271 November 6, 2014
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Monthly global CO2 level report. There is nothing favorable about it. The center line (black dots) has again reached an all-time high, after a brief hiatus.
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Discussion of the “carbon budget,” by Fred Pearce. This is interesting stuff, especially for those who are engaged in rendering policies. For the rest of us there is an important message to absorb. That is, within the scientific community there is a wide range of opinions about how the future is likely to unfold and what the risks may be. That’s completely unlike the scientists’ 97% agreement on where things stand right now and how we got here. Unfortunately, the future is not subject to the same kind of rigorous tests and observations. Furthermore, just about every in-place trend that we recognize is loaded with convolutions and inconsistencies, while interacting with other trends that are likewise loaded. We can plainly see the general direction, and see that none of it is benign, but the outlying parameters are frustratingly wide. Thus, while critical policy decisions cannot be based on direct evidence, maybe there is still somethng called “wisdom” that could be tuned in, aimed at maximizing avoidance of uncertain risks that could be devastating.
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The view from Australia. Ausralia and the U.S. have many things in common, including substantial dependence on coal-fired energy and politically active industry representatives. In Australia this has translated into aggressive and quite successful efforts to block competition from renewables. Are we now going to follow that example? It sounds like Dr. Strangelove has returned.
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Car battery innovation. This one is projected to add much more power and range cost-effectively, with a five-year time horizon. Sounds great, if true.
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Innovation is also continuing in biofuel research. This one projects “a significant step toward developing a bacterial strain that can yield industrial quantities of renewable bio-gasoline.” Here again, the possibilities are said to be “near future.” And again, how credible is the story?
Carl