Why scientists have growing concern over the CO2 released by permafrost thawing (Argonne National Laboratory). This new story refers to a study released last October about an unexpected finding, that emissions were released in winter as well as summer. (See CL#1537, published on.October 22.) We have just now received the first news release with a public evaluation of the meaning of the discovery. Currently, the net gain of all permafrost-related CO2 in the atmosphere, after accounting for reabsorption by plants, is equal to 7% of human additions based on burning fossil fuels. That is a fairly recent addition, starting only a few decades ago, and there is nothing to stop it from growing further in this century. It helps to explain the acceleration we have recently been seeing in the atmospheric CO2 reports from Mauna Loa. It also adds to the challenges we face in attempting to slow down that growth, in the hope of reaching the goals set in Paris. https://phys.org/news/2020-01-global-temperatures-northern-permafrost-region.html
There is an even bigger reason for thinking the Paris goals may be out of reach (Climate News Network). This story is all about the way new climate models are predicting a still greater amount of future warming based only on the way cloud formations may change as temperatures rise above current levels. The post here has a good summary of the main content of this previously reported news, but we still don’t have any idea of whether or how it will be incorporated into the next IPCC report. Not all models are in agreement. “The jury is still out, but it is worrying,” said Rockstrom. “Climate sensitivity has been in the range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C for more than 30 years. If it is now moving to between 3°C and 7°C, that would be tremendously dangerous.” https://climatenewsnetwork.net/paris-climate-goals-may-be-beyond-reach/
A thorough analysis of the damages wrought by the massive employment of agricultural fertilizer (The Center for Public Integrity). Among other things, this story is an unusually good source of information related to nitrous oxide, the third most important greenhouse gas—and a meaningful contributor to rising temperatures. N2O has increased at a higher rate than CO2 since pre-industrial times, and the essential role of fertilizer in food production makes it especially difficult to curb future growth. We should expect to hear more calls for a reduction in the number of farm animals, which are also widely implicated in the growth of CO2 emissions. https://publicintegrity.org/environment/unintended-consequences-farming-fertilizer-climate-health-water-nitrogen/
A new study reviews a wide range of different means that can effectively lead toward climate stabilization (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research). “Limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees C requires a decarbonized world by 2050 at the latest, and a corresponding global transformation of the energy and land use systems of societies around the world. To achieve this goal of net-zero carbon by 2050, emissions need to be cut by half every decade from now on.” That is a very ambitious goal. This high-level group of authors thinks it can be done, and tells us how, with a long list of recommendations. https://phys.org/news/2020-01-mechanisms-societal-climate-stabilization.html
–The full report is available: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/01/14/1900577117?