A very good summary of practically everything we know about the danger of melting permafrost (Yale e360). Here is one key paragraph: “The rapid thawing of permafrost has enormous implications for climate change. There are an estimated 1,400 gigatons of carbon frozen in permafrost, making the Arctic one of the largest carbon sinks in the world. That’s about four times more than humans have emitted since the Industrial Revolution, and nearly twice as much as is currently contained in the atmosphere. According to a recent report, a 3.6-degrees Fahrenheit ( 2 degrees Celsius) increase in temperature — expected by the end of the century — will result in a loss of about 40 percent of the world’s permafrost by 2100.” Some part of that, still unknown, will end up as additions to CO2 and methane gases in the atmosphere, amplifying temperatures even more. https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-melting-permafrost-is-beginning-to-transform-the-arctic
A new study finds that reforestation near rivers substantially and permanently reduces their flow (Climate News Network). The study’s intent is to warn about this consequence when replanting programs are being planned. The study also tells us, but only by inference, about the consequences of cutting down forests that currently exist, no matter how far from any river. The water they now hold back, and which is now evaporating in place by transpiration, will instead just run off to the sea via the fastest route of streams and rivers. That is a critical matter of concern for the preservation of large rainforests.
https://climatenewsnetwork.net/new-forests-mean-permanently-lower-river-flows/
Is global temperature rise now trending into a pace of acceleration? (Open Mind). A new analysis from “Tamino,” a scientist often referred to in these letters, does not quite draw conclusions but provides useful information that has a bearing on the subject. The most important chart is the one that takes out all the effects of temporary disturbances like major El Nino events, volcanoes and more, leaving just the warming impact of human activity. Using NASA’s database, the result shows not just acceleration but a new record annual high for 2019. 2016 was demoted from first place through the loss of its strong El Nino effect. Fundamentally, human activity may have caused accelerated growth in recent years not necessarily because of CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, but more from the measured upswing noted for several kinds of methane sources and possibly also from the emergence of significant emissions released by thawing of permafrost.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2020/01/22/is-the-apparent-recent-acceleration-in-temperature-significant/
An outbreak of massive locust swarms in East Africa is said to be unprecedented (reliefweb). From a UN report that has not been well-publicized, “Desert Locust swarms in Ethiopia. Kenya and Somalia – already unprecedented in their size and destructive potential – could swell exponentially and spill over into more countries in East Africa if efforts to deal with the voracious pest are not massively scaled up across the region…..This has become a situation of international dimensions that threatens the food security of the entire subregion.” Apart from smoke damage, how does a plague of that size, or its consequences, differ from the wildfire experience in Australia?
https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/massive-border-spanning-campaign-needed-combat-locust-upsurge-east-africa
Crop damage caused by insects increases as temperatures rise (Michigan State University). New research has found that the damage may be even worse than expected. Stories describing how the interaction between plants and insects is conducted are quite fascinating.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/01/200121133319.htm
Carl