A new study tells of how the entire globe will be affected by the extraordinary warming around the poles (National Geographic). This magazine story has a good introduction to an important study that is quite thorough on the subject and blessed by having authors like Richard Alley and Michael Mann who are well-known to the public. The second link will take you to the study itself, which has open access and is written in a manner that anyone can easily understand.
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–Here is the full study. Note that it lists 155 other studies as references, an unusually high number, all of which have contributed in some way to the overall understanding.
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Climate models are doing a good job predicting temperature changes from greenhouse gas emissions for periods up to three or four decades (VOX). A new study has reviewed the results of 17 models that were considered to represent high-quality science forecasts at the time they were issued. They performed well enough to establish a genuine link between the rate of emissions and their immediate impact on Earth’s air temperature, something that deniers have always claimed to be a fantasy. Longer-term forecasts made by the same kind of models can reasonably claim to gain credibility from this good showing. All of the numbers and dates are shown on a chart in this review.
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A new study sees future growth in the powerful damage done by “atmospheric rivers” (Inside Climate News). “The research…shows how much damage the most intense atmospheric rivers today are already doing, finding that just 10 atmospheric river events caused nearly half the flood damage in the U.S. West over the past four decades, adding up to billions of dollars…..These powerful rivers of water vapor can carry twice as much moisture as the Amazon River and extend for hundreds of miles.” The full description of these events is fascinating, and their impact is said likely to grow in a warmer world.
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Migratory birds evolve toward a smaller body size as temperatures in their range grow warmer (University of Michigan). The effect was found in all 52 species that were studied between 1978 and 2016 in the Chicago area. Forty of the species also revealed a significant increase in wing length. The internal reason for these changes is not yet clear but the association with temperature is unmistakable. “The consistency of the body-size declines reported in the new study suggests that such changes should be added to the list of challenges facing wildlife in a rapidly warming world.”
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A sober appraisal of the concerns and complications involved in the adoption of a “degrowth” model for tackling climate change (Elsevier). The premise, which is gradually gaining more attention: “If we want to tackle climate change and protect our future on the Earth, societies will need to adopt a degrowth model, in which we consume less, and use fewer materials and resources.” There is no other way I can think of to quickly reduce the total demand for energy currently produced by fossil fuels. Would it be disruptive to our way of life? Absolutely. This article takes a step toward figuring out how to get more people engaged, and ready to accept whatever changes are required by today’s circumstances.
—Sierra magazine has a more lengthy piece devoted to the same subject matter:
Carl