A terrific analysis of various trends in the growth of fossil fuel emissions through 2019 (Carbon Brief). I urge you to take a little time studying each of the charts, which could not be expressed more clearly. They all have something to think about, and cause one to wonder what changes will be next.
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For a close look at where this is taking us, the World Meteorological Organization has put together a post that covers all of the major indicators and impacts across the world’s weather system. This material, like the previous, is based on closely studied observations and assumed to be entirely factual.
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Current national climate policies put the globe on track for a temperature rise of 3C by the end of the century (Yale Climate Connections). That is just based on policies. Current production plans of the oil and gas companies through 2030 would add 10% to the emission goals tied to those policies, leading to still higher temperatures. This is one of the things the current UN conference in Madrid will have to discuss and sort out, along with whatever respect remains in place for meeting a more stringent target of 2C or less. “According to a recent study published in the journal Energy Research & Social Science, for the world to meet the Paris 2 degrees Celsius target, more than 80% of all proven fossil fuel reserves must be left in the ground – by no means an easy choice in any capitalist system or democratic society.”
A new report assesses the likely future impact of climate change on human displacements due to river flooding (Thomsen Reuters Foundation). “The number of people at risk of being forced from their homes by river flooding could surge to as many as 50 million a year by the end of the century if governments do not step up action to tackle climate change.” That would be five times the recent average of 10 million, affected in part by population growth. More intense rainfall and melting of mountain glacier ice are two major reasons for the predicted flooding increase.
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The AMOC ocean current in the North Atlantic is heading toward a tipping point (National Geographic). The flow began to slow down about a half-century ago, and measured a 15% drop in just the last decade. The primary cause is said to come from rising inputs of fresh water that hinder the sinking of surface waters, which are growing colder as they move northward, by reducing their density. Complete stoppage, which would provoke extensive and often dramatic weather changes, is a real possibility. As Stefan Rahmstorf puts it, “I think we have robust evidence that there is a threshold somewhere out there and we have increasing evidence that the AMOC is actually weakening. Which means it’s moving in the direction of where that threshold is.”
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“Pursuing economic growth at the expense of the environment is no longer an option” (The Guardian). An agency serving as Europe’s environmental watchdog has a full explanation for that opinion, just provided in a report. It would apply almost anywhere. Key details in this post:
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