Oil and gas production plans are completely out of step with Paris climate targets (The Guardian). A new analysis, issued by the UN in association with a coalition of research organizations, does not provide any forecast of what kind of temperature increase this would lead to, if all the plans are fulfilled, but does show that the increase would be greater than what is projected if all the pledges made under the Paris Agreement are maintained as originally expressed. An analysis issued by the same body one year ago said that “the current Paris agreement pledges to cut emissions would still lead to a catastrophic 3-4C rise.” There is a graph in this story, taken from the new report, that provides a clear comparison of the various projections, but without numbers. In short, the pledges need to be drastically revised if there is to be any hope of meeting the goals, and in that case the oil and gas companies would need to cancel every bit of their expansion plans, and then some. (It is understandable why some people feel so queasy about how such things will actually pan out from here.)
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–You can see what is in the report at this link:
–An executive summary of last year’s report:
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China continues to plan expansion of its coal-fired generating capacity (Reuters). “China raised its coal-fired power capacity by 42.9 gigawatts (GW), or about 4.5%, in the 18 months to June, connecting new projects to the grid at a time when capacity in the rest of the world shrank…..China also has another 121.3 GW of coal-fired power plants under construction…..It cut coal’s share of the country’s total energy from 68% in 2012 to 59% last year, and researchers predict it will fall to 55.3% by 2020…..Absolute coal consumption, however, has continued to increase in line with a rise in overall Chinese energy demand.”
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The case for “degrowth” gets stronger every day (The Tyee). The author is a senior Canadian journalist who clearly explains why renewable energy growth cannot bring climate targets into sight as long as total energy demand continues to increase. He makes a good case for a complete reversal of our addiction to economic growth and provides links to many sources of reference.
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An assessment of generally underestimated risks of damage from temperature warming above the Paris targets (Yale Climate Connections). A new report is authored by a blue-ribbon group of Earth scientists and economists, consistent with the findings of numerous recent climate economics studies. The focus is on risks that are difficult to quantify and are thus easily overlooked by previous assessments or in official pronouncements such as those of the IPCC.
–The report itself is easy to read and worth spending some time on:
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A fascinating new way to produce high-temperature industrial heat (VOX). “A new company called Heliogen, which came out of stealth mode on Tuesday, has developed a brand new, zero-carbon way of generating high-temperature heat. It’s backed by an experienced team, boasts Bill Gates as an investor, and seems to have pulled off the rare trick of creating something new in the cleantech world.” The primary markets are keyed to industrial processes that represent about one-fifth of global GHG emissions, and there are advanced possibilities under development having even greater goals.
Carl