Scientists declare climate emergency, establish global indicators for effective action (Oregon State University). “A global coalition of scientists led by William J. Ripple and Christopher Wolf of Oregon State University says “untold human suffering” is unavoidable without deep and lasting shifts in human activities that contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and other factors related to climate change…..Climate change has arrived and is accelerating faster than many scientists expected…..In a paper published today in BioScience, the authors, along with more than 11,000 scientist signatories from 153 countries, declare a climate emergency, present graphics showing trends as vital signs against which to measure progress, and provide a set of effective mitigating actions.” (You need to see the paper itself, in the second link.)
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–Here is the paper. Scroll down a bit to the two figure blocks, open each in a new tab, click several times to expand, and take some time studying. This is a bird’s eye view of what has been happening to our world over the last 40 years, with unmistakable momentum, showing why the scientists call it an emergency.
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Some islands in the Arctic Ocean had average temperatures 8C above normal for the month of October (The Barents Observer). “The biggest abnormalities are found in the area of the Franz Josef Land and Severnaya Zemlya, as well as further west in an area on the northeastern coast of Greenland…..Practically the whole central part of the high Arctic were at least four degrees higher than normal…..the year of 2019 could end up as the warmest ever registered on the northern hemisphere.” That helps to explain all the bad news about the high rate of permafrost melting in Siberia.
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Will plants consume more water as the Earth grows warmer? (Columbia University). A research team argues that this will likely be the case in much of the mid-latitudes when all factors are properly considered. “For some regions, the latter two impacts—extended growing seasons and amplified photosynthesis —will outpace the closing of stomata. This means that more vegetation will consume more water for a longer amount of time, with the net result of drier land.” That could often leave less fresh water available for other purposes. (This research should be useful, but it does raise a number of questions that are left unanswered.)
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The latest views of veteran climate scientist Bill McGuire, in an interview with Nick Breeze (The Ecologist). Bill is famed for his historical research into how major changes in the global climate impact extreme weather events, ice sheets, sea level and movements in the Earth’s crust, including earthquakes. He has much to say about the current unprecedented situation, always interesting. On top of everything else, “I don’t think you’ll find a single climate scientist, that if you talk to them in private, who will say that we are going to keep the global average temperature rise below even 2ºC.”
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A new study digs deeply into the relationship between total CO2 emissions and sea level rise (National Geographic). It starts with the unavoidable consequences of the CO2 that has already been emitted plus the absolute minimum from future expectations through the year 2030. “Even if all countries hit their Paris targets by 2030 and then stopped emitting carbon entirely, an unrealistic scenario but a useful thought experiment, the world’s oceans will still slosh higher. Under these idealistic conditions, by 2300—about eight generations away—sea levels around the world will be about 3 feet higher than today, the scientists say.” How much we add to that is a matter of choice, yet to be determined.
Carl