Climate Letter #396

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“Planned curbs in greenhouse gas emissions won’t prevent global warming ‘danger limit’ being reached, warns report.” This comes from a highly reputable group at the London School of Economics, which includes Lord Nicholas Stern. It is based on an analysis of pledges expected for the Paris conference this fall. Thus, “Paris should not be regarded as just a one-off opportunity to fix targets,” as further adjustments will be needed.
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The IEA wants to see stronger support for the development and integration of renewable energy. Currently, in spite of many advances, its potential is not being reached. Policies could be reshaped that would speed things up.
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The “noise” in global temperature trends. Zigzag anomalies are constantly revealed, as you can see by enlarging the two graphs in this post. This calls for an explanation. Many studies have been made about the influence of shifting ocean currents, which can affect temperature trends in the atmosphere for months or decades. What about shorter term irregularities? These have a ready-made explanation, which unfortunately gets little attention because of measurement difficulties. I am referring to water vapor, or just humidity, which is in a constant state of flux all over the globe. It is by far the strongest greenhouse gas, created mainly by evaporation, gets blown around, then soon drawn down as precipitation. On average, it amplifies all other sources of heating and/or cooling by about doubling their net effect on the atmosphere. But the amount of amplification is seldom just average, because of the way humidity jumps up and down, hourly and daily, here, there and everywhere. Its varying effect on the way Earth’s heat radiates into space, from locations hot, cold, and in between, is immediate. That is enough to explain why the temperature anomaly for the entire globe is always shifting back and forth by a few tenths in just a few weeks or even days.
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Tesla’s new storage device is getting more orders than the company can handle. Let’s think of this in comparison with the kind of acceptance when Ford rolled out the Model T from an assembly line back in the 1920s. It’s just the start of something that is sure to evolve mightily over time.
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A meaningful innovation for connecting renewables to the grid. This is a good example of a low-profile invention that can speed the oncoming transition by means of lower costs and higher efficiency.
Carl

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