A massive new survey of Earth’s remaining wilderness and how it is fragmented (University of California – Davis). The survey was conducted by the National Geographic Society through a comprehensive review of all existing and available information, tied to an ambitious goal of preserving as much real wilderness as possible for ecological reasons. The main conclusion is that 56% of all land area that is not permanently frozen could be protected in a sustainable way, but much of that land is subject to some degree of fragmentation that would need to be brought under control. Existing trends of further fragmentation would need to be reversed, which is still possible if promptly attended to.
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–Open access to the full study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50558-6#Sec6
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A separate study of land management practices of all types prescribes six priority actions that have high potential for success (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis). “IIASA researchers contributed to the development of a new roadmap outlining actions on deforestation, restoration, and carbon cuts that could lead to the land sector becoming carbon neutral by 2040 and a net carbon sink by 2050.” This action would account for a good 30% of the total worldwide goal for climate mitigation, separate from the needs to reduce burning of fossil fuels and employ negative emissions technologies, making it a truly substantial opportunity.
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A new study highlights the devastating impact of today’s high level of nitrogen pollution (Centre for Ecology &Hydrology). “More than 150 top international scientists are calling on the world to take urgent action on nitrogen pollution, to tackle the widespread harm it is causing to humans, wildlife and the planet…..the present environmental crisis is much more than a carbon problem…..If we want to beat climate change, air pollution, water pollution, biodiversity loss, soil degradation and stratospheric ozone depletion, then a new focus on nitrogen will be vital.” As an immediate goal, according to the study, nitrogen waste from all sources needs to be halved by 2030.
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India has sharply reduced its growth in carbon emissions (Carbon Brief). This has global importance for one big reason: “Since 2013, the country has accounted for more than half of the increase in global CO2 output.” The main reason was a slowdown in the expansion of coal-fired electricity generation, mostly due to a surge in renewable power generation along with a slowdown in demand growth. The shrinkage in coal burning also has great benefit with respect to air pollution, which is among the world’s worst.
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Deforestation in the Amazon continues even as the fires die down (Mongabay). It’s all because of unscrupulous activity by land speculators who are reaping big profits, while the Bolsonaro government looks the other way. The cutting goes on all year while the rubble is left for burning during the dry season.
–Here is a chart showing the year-by-year progression of Amazon deforestation since 1999 with estimated projections from the calculations of one expert through 2021, plus the link to a detailed policy brief from that expert: https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/amazon-deforestation-fast-nearing-tipping-point-when-rainforest-cannot-sustain
—The Guardian also weighs in with several views about the potential for an irreversible tipping point in the future health of the rainforest:
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