A good short review of the permafrost study that was outlined in yesterday’s letter (CBC News). This review is based on an interview with one of the 75 co-authors. “The research by scientists in 12 countries and from dozens of institutions is the latest warning that northern natural systems that once reliably kept carbon out of the atmosphere are starting to release it…..They found much more carbon was being released than previously thought. The results found carbon dioxide emissions of 1.7 billion tonnes a year are about twice as high as previous estimates…..The net result is that Arctic soil around the globe is probably already releasing more than 600 million tonnes of CO2 annually…..Egan notes the research didn’t measure methane, a greenhouse gas about 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide that is also released from soil.” It looks like this research goes a full step beyond anything related to permafrost thawing emissions prior to today. It offers a vivid demonstration of the fearsome power of climate change tipping points, which are under the control of nature itself. Thanks to the singular speedup up in Arctic land area warming, this tipping point has arrived at an unexpectedly early stage in the overall trend, where the global average temperature gain has yet to reach 1.5C.
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–Note: If you scroll down to near the bottom of the story there is an item called External Links that provides access to the full report, not just a summary, and quite readable.
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There is one more thing to be looking at which provides physical evidence that ever since 2012 the atmosphere has been gaining more CO2 content each year than ever before over a multi-year stretch. Why so? You may recall that Arctic warming took a big turn for the worse in that year and has remained ugly ever since. During these same years a major El Nino did add some carbon for about twelve months but fossil fuel emissions have been relatively subdued. This all suggests that nature has been adding unusual amounts of carbon by itself while the normal carbon sink may have entered a state of disrepair. (I am showing the station at American Samoa because it tracks the CO2 trend the same as the one at Mauna Loa but with a bit more blending and seasonal stability. Use a straightedge to clearly see how the track has shifted upward since 2012.)
Canadian voters have given environmental issues a boost, including the prospect of a carbon tax (CBC News). From Monday’s federal election, “We learned that a large majority of Canadians support political parties that promote a carbon tax, in one form or another. Roughly two-thirds of voters marked an “X” by the name of a Liberal, NDP, Green or Bloc Québécois candidate…..There are many reasons why a vote is cast for one party or another, but the environment seemed to be a top issue from the campaign’s start to voting day.”
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Evidence of a link between ocean acidification and mass extinction of marine species (The Guardian). Researchers have gained new information through chemical analysis of seashell fossils laid down at the time of the dinosaur extinction, when three-quarters of marine species were wiped out. “The researchers found that the pH dropped by 0.25 pH units in the 100-1,000 years after the strike…..The oceans acidified because the meteorite impact vaporised rocks containing sulphates and carbonates, causing sulphuric acid and carbonic acid to rain down….. we should be worried…..Researchers estimate that the pH of the ocean will drop by 0.4 pH units by the end of this century if carbon emissions are not stopped, or by 0.15 units if global temperature rise is limited to 2C.”
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An update on the progress of nuclear fusion (Oil Price.com). Activity is continuing and there are some positive developments. “…the Sparc team has set an ambitious target to have the reactor running in just 15 years.”
Carl