Climate Letter #394

Posted on May 5, 2015 by Carl Campbell
James Hansen thinks the 2-degree safety target is a prescription for disaster. His main point, based on studies of paleoclimate history, is that we could expect a total sea level rise of six to eight meters over time by reaching that temperature. This century alone would see not all of it, but a costly share. Hansen’s reputation as a climate research pioneer is without peer. His ideas for finding solutions are reasonable but not that widely accepted.

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Hansen published a well-known paper in December, 2012 projecting the potential for Greenland’s ice sheet loss in a scary way.  You can read it at this link:
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Up-to-date information on sea level rise. This post covers the latest news and generally supports Hansen’s view that an acceleration is underway. Still, for true perspective, bear in mind that a one meter increase for the century requires an average rise of ten millimeters per year. With 85 years to go we are still well below that figure, which means growth of a truly exponential type would have to take over before long to get us to that one meter mark by 2100, and much more of such for two.
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Views from the Norwegian Polar Institute. This group, unlike most others, has the fortitude to make their studies in the winter. They are finding plenty of evidence of change due to warming.
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A new poll, and some pointed discussion about how the positioning of the two parties differs. The poll finds that 15% of Democrat voters make climate the number one issue, and want the party leaders to follow, but the leaders have other concerns, like all those people who may be more worried about jobs. (In some states that is a big deal.) Republican leaders above all must keep the Tea Party happy on climate matters, which has come to mean paying almost no attention to how others feel. So, Republicans have to learn how to tone down their support for the potent Tea Party wing, and Democrats  have to find ways to beef up their support for the likewise potent environmentalist wing if any real progress is to be made as a nation.

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