Climate Letter #393

An immediate problem for climate negotiators—carbon-emitting infrastructure is still being built. A new report that focuses on this very disturbing problem has just been issued by the International Energy Agency. This has to be taken seriously. The IEA has very conservative methods and is highly respected for the accuracy of its views. Coverage of the report in this post from the Guardian begins like this: “The world is likely to build so many fossil-fuelled power stations, energy-guzzling factories and inefficient buildings [my add: don’t forget vehicles] in the next five years that it will become impossible to hold global warming to safe levels, and the last chance of combating dangerous climate change will be “lost for ever”, according to the most thorough analysis yet of world energy infrastructure.” It goes on from there to show why, and how difficult it will be to prevent this from happening. Give this post a close reading, as it has a lot more to say.

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http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/nov/09/fossil-fuel-infrastructure-climate-change
Extra comment: We often talk about the absolute need to leave most fossil fuel reserves in the ground, which entails huge losses to the owners, their employees, and the people who provide financing to them. We will soon have to apply the same thinking to owners of all the facilities that consume these fuels, the useful life of which would have to be cut short if certain global warming targets are to be realized. Better if these things don’t get built in the first place, which means ending new construction right now, but that of course means putting their builders out of work. Any way you look at it there will be opposition, and the time for confrontation, unfortunately, is now. A stiff price on burning carbon would help do the trick, but that should have been started years ago. Just as the price of inaction has grown, so has the price of action. One source of hope we can cling to is that renewable energy will soon enough become so cheap that it will pay to simply throw away trillions of dollars worth of things that don’t make use of it. In that event no rules or negotiations would even be necessary.
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Huge implications for Tesla’s storage capability. Forbes (as well as others) is now saying this probably marks the end of any plans to build new nuclear power plants.
If you are not up to speed on Tesla’s big announcement that was made last Thursday, here is some good coverage from Giles Parkinson:
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Tesla will have all kinds of competition. There is even a small inventor in Germany who has already earned a spot in the storage market, with hundreds of his devices now being sold annually. He is said to have further improvements yet to come.
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Ecosystem losses due to oil and gas drilling in central North America. Note the demands being made on scarce water supplies. Disposal of badly polluted water after usage is another problem not even mentioned here.
Carl

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