The South Pole has a polar vortex similar to the one in the North, and it can likewise break down (Monash University). A new study describes how variations in the vortex has implications in the form of extreme weather events in Australia and nearby territory, which are found to be predictable in certain cases. “The researchers used climate observations from 1979 to 2016 to identify years of strong stratospheric warming (or strong weakening of the polar vortex) and calculated the likelihood of having extreme hot and dry conditions over Australia in those years compared to others…..in the Southern Hemisphere, the polar vortex tended to vary only moderately, with the exception perhaps of September 2002 when a major stratospheric warming event was observed.” (The next story adds 2019 to the picture, plus a bit more more.)
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On September 6th four of the authors of the above report, then not yet published, warned that a new breakdown of the vortex had just been identified and would lead to numerous extreme weather events around Australia (The Conversation). “The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting the strongest Antarctic warming on record, likely to exceed the previous record of September 2002…..its effects will extend downward to Earth’s surface, affecting much of eastern Australia over the coming months.” This has yet to fully play out, but the scientists said something else that was interesting because it implied effects beyond the immediate region: “Apart from warming the Antarctic region, the most notable effect will be a shift of the Southern Ocean westerly winds towards the Equator.” The air those winds carry toward the Equator are actually quite cold—perhaps cold enough to make changes in weather along the paths they follow?
Now you should scroll down to Climate Letter #1523 on Oct. 2 and look again at how relatively cool the ocean temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere were at that time, all the way up to the Equator, a difference great enough to require a good explanation. If you go to the current Climate Reanalyzer site you will find that the same situation continues to exist today (bottom chart): https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#sstanom You should also look at the air temperature anomaly charts which clearly show that air in the SH is cooler now than it was thirty years ago—and has been that way for some time—even though a sizable portion of the air above continental Antarctica is about 10C warmer than before.
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There is one more website for you to check out, called Windy, which has an amazing amount of animated information that is easy to navigate with a little practice, and most fascinating. It shows brisk winds blowing toward the Equator from the south over large areas of ocean, areas which tend to overlap quite nicely with the coolest patches of surface water seen in the previous chart. I believe those winds are of a regular sort, but perhaps more powerful than usual in their cooling effect these days. https://www.windy.com/?0.791,-132.715,3.
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All of this information leaves us with the question of what is causing the surface of the Northern Hemisphere to be so very warm compared with a few decades ago, re both the low atmosphere and the ocean surfaces? A possible overload of water vapor across much of its atmosphere, of uncertain future duration, is all I can think of at the moment. (Check out the Precipitable Water charts on the Climate Reanalyzer website.)
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A profile of Canada’s carbon emissions, part of an outstanding series from Carbon Brief. Everything about this country seems to be different. Emissions per capita are very high, even higher than in the US, in spite of Canada having two-thirds of its electricity produced from renewable sources. Exploitation of Alberta’s oil sands is the main hangup—“Oil and gas production is Canada’s largest emitting sector.”
Carl