Climate Letter #1526

A short explanation of how warmer soils accelerate climate change, and the main route to corrective action (Yale Climate Connections).  From a professor of ecosystem ecology, land that has been cleared for agriculture creates a ‘feedback loop’ as temperatures rise, due to increases in the activity of microbes.  “So to keep soil from getting too warm, Crowther suggests restoring grasslands and forests that provide shade.”

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Note:  Once that argument is taken seriously there are likely to be issues needing resolution.  The next story sheds light on the basic issue created by proposals for converting farmland to forests, specifically applicable to Europeans:
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An Environmental Research Letter from IOP Science:  “Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation.”  If expanding forest land is indeed a necessity, and can only be achieved by reducing farmland, something will have to give.  This research group has looked at all the angles, which are explored in some detail, and come to this conclusion:  “This study has shown that satisfying food security and forest area targets requires substantial changes in both the supply and demand sides of the European food system. While technological improvements (through yield and irrigation efficiency improvements) may be achievable in some regions of Europe, shifting to diets with less or no meat consumption will be most critical and challenging in practice.”
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“Why extreme climate scenarios no longer seem so unlikely” (PBS NewsHour).  A panel of scientists examines the potential worst-case scenarios.  You can either watch the video (8 min) or read the transcript.  The program was prompted as a response to recent news about how new climate models are suggesting that IPCC predictions of likely temperature increases may have underestimated the upper limits of probability.
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Peruvian glaciers are rapidly disappearing (University of Erlangen-Nuremberg).  A research team has analyzed losses of mass and area in the current century in glaciers over the entire range of Peruvian Andes, commonly found at altitudes above 4000 meters.  They identified a glacial retreat of 29 percent during the period of investigation, 2000 to 2016.  Also, “A total of 170 of previously 1973 glaciers have even disappeared completely….. Furthermore, they observed a rate of retreat for the period 2013 to 2016 almost four times higher than in the years before.”  Effects were worsened during periods of El Nino activity.
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One way to suck more CO2 out of the atmosphere involves genetic modification of plants (The Guardian).  Scientists at the Salk Institute are taking that approach and have high hopes, mainly keyed to the development of deeper and stronger root systems.
Carl

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