A report from a coalition of more than 200 Iowa scientists (Iowa Public Radio). It’s mainly about the prospect of temperatures in the state getting much hotter in coming decades. “I would say we are on the road to leaving an uninhabitable planet for our children…..It’s like we see things moving in slow motion and we think we’ll always have time to act. But we don’t anymore.”
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Researchers have tallied the total direct health costs caused by a wide range of ten specific severe weather events that occurred in one year in the US (American Geophysical Union). “Our research shows that health-related costs added at least another 26 percent to the national price tag for 2012 severe weather-related damages….. The NOAA annual extreme weather cost estimates do not include health costs.” The authors note that the true costs related to health are likely substantially higher but cannot be evaluated for lack of being recorded, and that yearly totals related to similar kinds of extreme weather events have likely been rising since 2012.
–Link to the full report: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000202
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Scientists have found a way to explain the rapid rise in global temperatures during the PETM (University of Michigan) Physical evidence for both the rate of rise in temperatures and the rise in greenhouse gases during this era has always seemed to be poorly correlated in terms of standard theories of climate sensitivity. This team simply applied the new cloud development processes that work well in today’s climate models and found a good fit when the extreme numbers that characterize the Early Eocene are introduced. “For the first time, a climate model matches the geological evidence out of the box — that is, without deliberate tweaks made to the model. It’s a breakthrough for our understanding of past warm climates.” There are also some implications relevant to the current situation that we need to watch out for.
–Access to the full study: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/9/eaax1874
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Some thoughts about the relationship of air pollution to global warming (Carbon Brief). The main point made by a new study is that there is no chance of a large spike in temperatures as a result of the air suddenly becoming much cleaner. Thus, no matter how aggressive we are about ceasing to burn fossil fuels there will always be net benefits, which is nice to know. The authors do acknowledge that “we believe that man-made aerosols have offset a significant amount of greenhouse-gas warming up until now…..perhaps in the region of 0.5 to 1C,” which has helped to keep us cool up to this point by reducing the amount of solar energy that can reach the surface. I suppose that sooner or later that effect would be reversed, but it could always be offset for awhile by geoengineering with artificial reflectors of some sort.
Carl