What the new generation of climate models is all about, and why they matter (Carbon Brief). I am reposting this from my letter of last March 22 because it offers a keen perspective on how this field of climate research has progressed over the past couple of decades. It will even let you hunt down scores of older reports from scientists cover a broad range of estimates, all of which have gotten some kind of attention, mostly rejected. The newest models have been designed in ways that make them harder to reject. They will provide the “foundation” of the next IPCC report, due out in 2021, and perhaps have an influence before then as the word gets out.
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A second report on what the two new published models represent (The CNRS—or The French National Centre for Scientific Research.) Their report tells us more about the process, and clearly notes that “the reasons for this increased sensitivity and the degree of confidence to be attributed have yet to be assessed.” So maybe the IPCC will find reasons for rejection, but as more models from other centers are submitted—and likely to be fairly similar—that may be quite difficult. Keep in mind that different scenarios of human behavior are being estimated and that future behavior will still determine the final outcome. The “best” scenario under one of the models, that could hold warming to less than 2C in this century, would require “very significant mitigation efforts and of temporarily exceeding this target during the course of the century.”
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A global progress report on emissions reduction (RenewEconomy). This link from Climate Action Tracker provides relevant data from all of the world’s large economies, with rankings, and for the world as a whole. Note that the standards employed are those that were made effective by the Paris Agreement, which presumably will soon be obsolete if the IPCC makes revisions to its climate estimates, as discussed in the stories above.
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A Norwegian analytical group has set up a list of ten vitally important measures of accomplishment that must be met if the targets set in Paris are to be realized (DNV.GL). They are all said to be possible using current technologies if the willpower is sufficient. Here again, any changes that might be made in IPCC estimates would be upsetting. The link has much more energy-related information available.
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A breakdown of all the places where cash that addresses climate change is flowing, both public and private, and why it is not enough (Nature). In general, “Groups that track the economics estimate that, all told, more than half a trillion dollars a year is going into climate-related activities…..The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that an annual investment of $2.4 trillion is needed in the energy system alone until 2035 to limit temperature rise to below 1.5 °C from pre-industrial levels.”
Carl