Climate Letter #383

Update on the permafrost emissions feedback potential. This is a quite thorough review of an even more thorough recently published review of the immense amount of research that has been concentrated on this subject. There are many interesting conclusions, the most basic of which is that the problem is serious and the IPCC has been wrong to exclude it when making projections. “The overall conclusion is that, although the permafrost feedback is unlikely to cause abrupt climate change in the near future, the feedback is going to make climate change worse over the second half of this century and beyond.” They show about how much worse under several possible scenarios.

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A review of the oil spill problem. Oil spills of various types are a fact of life, every single day. The biggest ones get reported, but not the myriads of little fellows that all add up. It is a worldwide problem, and the damage to the environment is great. What’s missing is a database that would put it all together in the right perspective. Sadly, that is also largely true of the U.S. just by itself. This means awareness of the damage remains low, and so does the effort to control it, thereby giving the oil industry too much of a free pass.
Book review: “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation,” by Tony Seba. The author makes forecasts about how oil,nuclear, gas and coal will all become obsolete by the year 2030, thanks mainly to competition from wind and solar. He even explains why the cost of a full transition will be considerably less than the costs projected for continuing development of the older sources. This man has a good bio and a good record of forecasting, which should make him worth listening to.
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A promising near-term opportunity for renewables. Big corporations often have extra-large electricity requirements within a fairly concentrated area. If the costs are right and the return on investment is good this provides an ideal situation for generating their own power. A few large corporations have already made such plans, using renewable energy, and a great many others have good reason to follow, once they see the attraction and acquire the confidence needed to be successful.
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The challenges faced by fuel cell vehicles. This writer is someone who has doubts about their viability, and offers seven basic reasons for such, even if cheap and clean hydrogen is available. These are things to keep in mind.
Carl

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