Climate Letter #1421

The climate-change contribution to Mississippi River flooding (E&E News).  Experts weigh in on the causes of intense flooding events becoming more frequent.  There are several problems other than climate change, but one common theme is that the failure to make accurate predictions leads to failure when making preparations.

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Much new knowledge has been gained about the nature of El Nino events (The Conversation).  The authors of a new research study discuss their findings, which cover 400 years of previously unknown history, for this article.  It gives us a clear understanding of the two types of El Nino (apart from La Nina), their relative strength and frequency, and the future implications of recent changes, which are worrisome.
–Some background on how this study came about, showing how science can work to find well-hidden answers:
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Advanced models indicate that intense heatwaves will occur back-to-back more frequently (Phys.org).  This is the first study that considers the probability and hardship of compound heatwaves.  “Because of the shorter recovery period between events, the effects of these compound heat waves are often significantly worse than stand-alone events.”  The authors believe that crisis managers will need to take this likelihood into account.
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New information related to Earth’s geological carbon cycle (EurekAlert).  For those who are interested, this study finds some changes in the traditional view of what happens to carbon in subduction zones that plunge into the mantle as crustal plates are shifting.  It helps to explain the ultra-long term decline of carbon in the atmosphere but won’t be of any use in meeting the current crisis.
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The economic benefits of health improvement due to emissions reduction should be recognized as a significant factor in offsetting costs (EurekAlert).  According to a new model, “these co-benefits have traditionally been excluded in the cost-benefit models that estimate how much the world should pay to reduce carbon emissions. When put together, the researchers find immediate net benefits globally from climate policy investments.”  This is especially true for developing regions having the highest amount of air pollution.
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The inspiring story of a married couple in Brazil that restored nearly three square miles of barren land into lush and verdant rainforest (Metro).  After 20 years and a lot of tree-planting everything has returned to its earlier condition.
Carl

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